Wolfgang Becker’s Good Bye, Lenin! (2003) is a German tragicomedy cult classic set around the fall of the Berlin Wall. The story centers on Alex, whose mother, Christiane, a committed socialist, falls into a coma just before the collapse of East Germany. When she wakes up months later, the world she believed in is gone. To protect her from a fatal shock, Alex concocts an elaborate ruse: he rebuilds in their flat the illusion that the GDR still exists, deploying fake news, old-style products, and silent complicity from neighbors. The film weaves political satire, family drama, and the emotional weight of a society in flux. (Good Bye, Lenin! won Best Film at the 2003 European Film Awards, among other honors.)

The film isn’t just a personal tale it reflects Germany’s struggle to reconcile identity, memory, and modernization after reunification. It illustrates how political change is mediated through stories, public belief, and the “illusion machines” of media and symbolic power. For your audience interested in diplomacy, trade, or policy, Good Bye, Lenin! is a reminder that transitions are never just structural; they depend on how people imagine and believe in change.

Watch the full movie on Amazon.de.

In Bosnia’s Volatile Transition: Waiting for a More Decisive Germany, analyst Nikola Xaviereff argues that Bosnia is entering a precarious political phase following the decline of Milorad Dodik’s separatist push. DGAP suggests that with U.S. attention receding and EU bandwidth stretched, Germany should take a lead role in redesigning Bosnia’s international supervision, especially ahead of its upcoming elections. The risks are high: renewed ethnic tensions, institutional paralysis, and regression on EU integration. For Germany, this isn’t just Balkan policy, it’s a test of its capacity to lead Europe’s stability agenda, safeguard EU enlargement credibility, and prevent geopolitical vacuums just beyond its borders.

Read the full memo on DGAP’s site.

During the 35th-anniversary celebration of German Unity on October 3rd, Chancellor Friedrich Merz called for national unity but delivered a stark warning: Germans must prepare for austerity to secure the country’s future.

Merz argued that Germany is „under attack“ from external and internal threats, requiring a major increase in defense capacity. To finance this, he warned that social promises would be „more difficult to uphold than they have been in the past,“ effectively signaling cuts to the social welfare system. He stressed citizens must „make a little more effort,“ tying economic sacrifice directly to national defense and stability, while also citing „irregular, uncontrolled migration“ as a source of domestic polarization.

To know more about it, visit the European Conservative official website.

In September, inflation across the eurozone rose to 2.2 %, the highest level in five months, pushed by stronger price increases in services and energy goods. Core inflation (which strips out volatile items like food and energy) held steady at 2.3 %, signaling that underlying price pressures remain entrenched. The rise strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to maintain its current interest rate stance rather than moving prematurely.

Germany is especially exposed: as a major exporter and a country with close ties to eurozone monetary policy, rising inflation affects its competitiveness, consumer prices, and the calculus for German fiscal and industrial policies. Berlin will be watching EU monetary moves and inflation data closely for cues on how to balance investment, wage growth, and export pressures.

Read the full story on Euronews.

In Europe’s Migration Crisis a Decade Later (Reuters Podcast), reporter Riham Alkousaa revisits the German town of Altena, reflecting on how the massive migration influx around 2015 reshaped lives, politics, and social trust. She dives into stories of integration success, community backlash, and how migration continues to challenge identities and policies across Europe. Germany, as one of the primary destinations during that wave, remains at the nexus of these debates: it faces growing pressure to balance humanitarian commitment, social cohesion, and political backlash.

Listen to the full episode on Reuters.

The Rest in Politics episode on „Is Trump Destroying the United Nations?“, Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell ask whether Donald Trump’s attacks on the U.N. amount to rhetoric or real institutional damage. They debate the prospect of moving the U.N. headquarters out of New York, the politics of Palestinian recognition, and how U.S. disengagement could undermine the legitimacy of multilateralism.

For Germany, a top donor and committed multilateral actor, the stakes are clear: if the U.N. weakens, Berlin loses a vital platform for influence. It would force Germany to rethink how it projects power through the EU, regional blocs, or new frameworks while also managing risks for its export industries and global supply chains.

Listen to the full episode on Apple Podcasts.

The Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s “From Fall of the Wall to Unity” traces how the Peaceful Revolution of 1989 and the collapse of the GDR regime paved the way for German unification in 1990. It highlights how grassroots protest movements, mass demonstrations in Leipzig, and political negotiating maneuvers (like Kohl’s Ten-Point Plan) combined to dismantle the East-West divide.

The narrative is not just historical it’s a lens for viewing the fragility of political orders, how legitimacy can erode, and how transformation demands both vision and institutional will. For Germany today, revisiting this moment offers more than nostalgia. It reminds Berlin of the costs of polarization, the importance of civil society, and the challenge of integrating divergent systems lessons still relevant as the country wrestles with social change, European cohesion, and the recalibration of its role abroad.

Learn more about it on KAS.

Europe’s AI Act: Setting global rules through risk-based regulation

The EU’s new AI Act is widely seen as the first comprehensive law to regulate artificial intelligence. At its core lies a risk-based framework, which classifies AI systems according to the potential harm they may cause from minimal risk to unacceptable risk, and applies obligations accordingly. The aim is to safeguard fundamental rights while still encouraging innovation, making Europe a standard-setter in global AI governance. For Germany, this means both opportunity and challenge: as one of Europe’s largest tech and industrial hubs, it must ensure compliance while also showing how regulation and competitiveness can go hand in hand.

Read more about it on the official website of the European Union AI Act.

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President Trump’s decision to impose a $100,000 fee on employers applying for new H-1B visas has rattled Silicon Valley, where companies warn of an exodus of international talent. Forbes reports that European AI startups could be unexpected winners, suddenly in a stronger position to attract engineers, researchers, and founders discouraged by U.S. barriers. The development highlights how shifting immigration policy in Washington can reconfigure the global tech race. Germany, with its deep-tech ecosystem and demand for skilled talent, stands to benefit if it can streamline its own visa pathways and innovation incentives.

Read the full story on Forbes.

After four consecutive years in deficit, the European Union recorded a €23 billion surplus in high-tech trade with non-EU partners in 2024, compared to a €15 billion deficit in 2023. According to Eurostat, exports of high-tech goods grew by 8.1% to €501 billion, while imports edged down slightly to €478 billion. Pharmaceuticals, electronics, and aerospace were the main growth drivers, with the United States and the United Kingdom acting as the largest external markets.

The shift highlights how Europe’s high-tech sector has regained competitiveness on the global stage despite headwinds from geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities. For Germany, the largest high-tech manufacturing hub in the EU with nearly 9,000 firms and over 660,000 employees in the sector, the surplus underscores both opportunity and responsibility: Berlin’s ability to innovate, invest in R&D, and stabilize supply chains will shape how sustainable this recovery becomes.

Read more about the trade surplus on Eurostat.

The Economics Show podcast episode features Dan Wang, author of „Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future,“ discussing the unique strengths and vulnerabilities of China’s technocratic rise. Wang characterizes China as an „engineering state, a nation where rapid construction and innovation in infrastructure, manufacturing, and technology have propelled its ascent to superpower status.

Yet, breakneck growth has led to challenges like overproduction and deflation, with Beijing now striving to boost domestic demand and avoid instability. Wang details how China’s focus on building comes with social costs, from rigid policies like the one-child and zero-Covid initiatives, to a tendency for leaders to view citizens as aggregates for management rather than individuals. The episode underscores the dilemmas China faces in balancing relentless development with sustainable economic prosperity and human well-being. To know more about these insights, listen on Apple Podcasts.

Step back in time to Munich at the turn of the 20th century with Oktoberfest 1900, a gripping German drama series. Follow the ambitious brewer Mišel Matičević, Martina Gedeck, and Klaus Steinbachercity, all against the lively backdrop of Munich’s famous Oktoberfest.

Across six thrilling episodes, the show mixes history, rivalry, and suspense, bringing early industrial Bavaria to life. With standout performances the series has been praised for its authentic period details and intense, emotional storytelling.

Don’t miss this dive into ambition, tradition, and power in one of Germany’s most iconic folk festivals! Watch the series on Netflix.

France’s borrowing costs have surged, with 10-year bond yields now above Greece and close to Italy, as political instability intensifies. Prime Minister François Bayrou resigned after failing to pass his deficit-cutting budget, leaving President Macron to find a successor capable of navigating a hung parliament. Investors are warning that France is slowly shifting into the Eurozone’s “periphery,” a category of riskier borrowers once reserved for countries like Greece and Italy.

With France’s debt-to-GDP ratio expected to reach 118% by 2026 and social unrest looming, market volatility is likely to continue. Bond managers expect a prolonged period of uncertainty, and any fiscal consolidation is unlikely until after the 2027 presidential elections. Read more on Financial Times.

Germany’s parliament has passed the 2025 budget, allowing €116 billion in investments supported by a €500 billion infrastructure fund and special exemptions for defence spending. Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil called it a “huge paradigm shift,” aimed at boosting the economy and strengthening military support commitments to NATO and Ukraine. Defence spending will rise to 2.4% of GDP, though still below NATO’s new 3.5% target.

The total budget reaches €591 billion, combining core spending and special funds, with total borrowing projected at €143.2 billion. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s coalition now faces challenging discussions for future budgets, including a €30 billion gap projected for 2027. Parliament will debate the 2026 draft next week. Read more on Reuters.

The World Trade Organization’s 2025 World Trade Report finds that artificial intelligence (AI) could propel the value of global trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, provided policies are put in place to bridge the digital divide and support workforce skills. The report highlights that AI-driven cost reductions and productivity gains have the potential to add up to 37% to global trade volumes and boost global GDP by 12-13% under various scenarios.

However, realizing these gains requires proactive investments in digital infrastructure, education, and open trade regulations, especially for low- and middle-income economies. Without such measures, gaps in access and restrictive trade policies could worsen inequality and leave many countries behind amid the AI revolution.

To know more about the report’s findings and recommendations, read more on the World Trade Organization’s official site.

The podcast episode of the Foreign Affairs Interview examines the profound impact of President Donald Trump’s trade policies during his second term, which have significantly disrupted the post-Cold War global economic order.
Michael Froman, former U.S. Trade Representative and current president of the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the era of “America first” protectionism and parallel strategies by China marks the decline of the established rules-based trading system. Froman warns that economic anarchy could result but stresses that nostalgia for the old order is futile, advocating instead for the construction of a new global economy governed by rules, even if formal global governance is weakened. This episode offers critical insights into the future trajectory of international trade and economic relations.
Listen to the full episode on Apple Podcasts.

CNN has highlighted Africa’s rapidly growing creative economy as a powerful driver of growth, cultural expression, and social cohesion. Contributing an estimated $4.2 billion annually to the continent’s GDP, the creative sector is emerging as a dynamic engine of innovation and opportunity.
Yet, despite its vibrancy, it receives less than 1% of global investment. Initiatives such as the UNDP’s Timbuktoo Creatives Hub and the Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) Summit are working to bridge this gap by mobilizing capital, empowering youth-led startups, and fostering growth in industries like film, music, fashion, and digital arts.
These efforts align with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), advancing regional integration and opening new pathways for trade, jobs, and inclusive development.
To learn more, watch the full feature on CNN.

The final session of the UN Open-Ended Working Group on ICT Security (OEWG 2021–2025) marked a historic milestone with the creation of a permanent UN Global Mechanism to guide responsible state behavior in cyberspace. This new mechanism replaces ad hoc forums with a lasting, action-oriented body designed to foster inclusive dialogue among both states and non-state stakeholders.
At its core, the Global Mechanism will feature two Dedicated Thematic Groups: one focused on promoting a secure, stable, and interoperable ICT environment, and the other on accelerating cyber capacity-building. These groups will provide structured engagement and deliver practical recommendations to address pressing challenges.
The initiative also responds to evolving cyber threats by endorsing voluntary norms for responsible state conduct and advancing confidence-building measures to increase transparency and trust in cyberspace.
Read more at EU Cyber Direct.

The ECB’s September 2025 staff macroeconomic projections indicate that the euro area economy is expected to grow moderately, with real GDP rising by 1.2% in 2025, 1.0% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027. Growth is expected to be supported by rising wages, increased government spending on infrastructure and defense, and improved financing conditions, despite challenges from higher US tariffs and subdued foreign demand.
Moreover, inflation is projected to stabilize around the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%, with energy price volatility and climate-focused fiscal measures influencing inflation trends. The labour market remains resilient, while export prospects are dampened by competitive pressures and tariffs, leading to slower export growth but sustained import activity.
Read more on the ECB’s website.

In this episode of Diplomatic Immunity, Kelly McFarland speaks with Ambassador Erin McKee about the strategic role of international aid in strengthening democracy, transparency, and good governance. Drawing emphasizes work in Ukraine and other crisis-affected regions, McKee discusses how targeted development assistance — from e-governance initiatives to energy sector reforms — can empower citizens, improve government accountability, and support long-term stability. She emphasizes that effective aid goes beyond funding, requiring close collaboration with local governments and communities, the smart use of technology, and a focus on building resilient institutions capable of navigating complex political and economic challenges. Listen to the full episode on Diplomatic Immunity’s Apple Podcast.

This episode of DW Documentary explores how global shifts, including the battle for raw materials, climate change, and digitalization, are reshaping lives across seven regions. It highlights the transformative role of smartphones and global supply chains that connect countries and companies worldwide. Early hopes that globalization would erase borders and reduce inequality have not materialized. Rising tensions between the USA and China are creating new blocs and spheres of influence. Risk management and competition for global leadership now dominate production and trade decisions. With traditional Western economies stagnating and other regions surging ahead, the episode raises a key question: who are the true winners and losers in today’s evolving global order? Watch the full episode on DW Documentary’s Youtube channel.

The EU and four Mercosur countries — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay — reached a political agreement in December 2024 to boost trade and investment. On 3 September 2025, the European Commission adopted proposals for the signature and conclusion of two legal instruments: the EU-Mercosur Partnership Agreement (EMPA) and an interim Trade Agreement (iTA), which will be replaced by the EMPA once fully ratified. The deal lowers tariffs and non-tariff barriers, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises, sets clear rules on intellectual property, food safety, competition, and regulatory standards, and promotes workers’ rights, environmental protection, and sustainable development. Learn more about it at the European Commission’s trade policy website.

Between August 31 and September 1, 2025, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Tianjin, China, and the subsequent WWII commemorative parade in Beijing showcased China’s rising diplomatic and strategic influence. Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin projected unprecedented warmth, while Pakistan leveraged the summit to advance security concerns and bilateral ties with China, Iran, and Russia. The summit saw agreements on the SCO Development Bank, four new security centers, and cooperation in energy, capacity building, and the green and digital economies. Although the tangible outcomes remain limited, this week allowed China to assert global leadership, manage its partnership with Russia, and signal a multipolar world beyond traditional US-led frameworks. For a more in-depth analysis, read the full analysis by Stimson Center.

In August 2025, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany dropped sharply to 34.7 points, a decline of 18 points from the previous month, reflecting disappointment among financial market experts following the EU–US trade deal. The economic situation also deteriorated, with the situation indicator falling to minus 68.6 points. Key sectors affected include chemicals, pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, metal, and automotive. The eurozone outlook is more positive at 25.1 points, but still 11 points lower than the previous month, with the situation indicator at minus 31.2 points, signaling broadly subdued sentiment. These figures highlight ongoing uncertainty and challenges for Germany and the eurozone, particularly in industrial sectors. Read the full report on the ZEW website.

Episode from The Foreign Affairs Interview reveals how the U.S. long leveraged “weaponized interdependence” to use its dominant position in finance and technology as a strategic tool but now faces a new reality as rivals like China retaliate by weaponizing their own economic chokepoints. Hosts unpack this shift toward economic warfare and the merging of national security with economic power, discussing its implications for global geopolitics and the evolving international order. Listen for an in-depth analysis of this transformation on Apple Podcasts.

In this Geopolitical Economy Report episode, Prof. John Mearsheimer maps the evolution of global power from a bipolar Cold War world to today’s dangerous multipolar system dominated by the US, China, and Russia. He explains that the current dual conflict dyads US-China and US-Russia pose greater risks than the Cold War’s US-Soviet rivalry. Mearsheimer applies his theory of international politics to analyze these conflicts, focusing on how Hungary, as a smaller power situated between these giants, navigates this volatile landscape. Watch the talk to understand Hungary’s complex position in today’s great power dynamics on the Geopolitical Economy Report’s YouTube channel.

The recent Franco-German Ministerial Council, marked by a meeting between Chancellor Friedrich Merz and President Emmanuel Macron, highlights a renewed commitment to deeper cooperation on economic and security policies. Both leaders emphasized their countries‘ central roles within the EU and stressed the importance of becoming a global powerhouse politically, economically, and in security matters. The council plans to adopt an economic declaration featuring strategic concepts and flagship projects alongside a separate security policy declaration, reflecting the urgent need for a robust and united Europe amid global challenges. Read more on Germany’s foreign policy updates on deutschland.de.

Recent data reveals that Europe’s trade landscape in 2025 is marked by robust exports ($2.18 trillion) and imports ($2.11 trillion) in Q1, with the EU holding over a third of global trade share. Agricultural exports grew by 3%, while imports soared 20%, signaling strong demand amid fluctuating commodity prices. The EU’s goods trade surplus has jumped to $191 billion, bolstered by resilient sectors like chemicals and manufacturing, while increased rail freight volume suggests diversified trade routes. Despite ongoing risks from US tariffs, climate regulations, and geopolitical tensions, Europe is positioned to leverage policy reforms, sustainable practices, and technology advancements to maintain its strategic autonomy and emerge as a leader in clean, smart global trade. Explore more detailed insights on TradeImeX.

After the EU-US summit on Russia’s war against Ukraine, Berlin is actively debating the nature and extent of Germany’s role in providing security guarantees for Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the summit’s outcomes, emphasizing that any agreement must begin with a ceasefire, reflecting the broader European position, whereas the US has advocated moving directly to peace talks. Security operations under consideration range from enhanced training missions to proposals for a UN peacekeeping force of up to 40,000. The ongoing process underscores Merz’s assertive foreign policy, a shift welcomed by many within Germany’s ruling coalition. Read the full article on DW’s website.

What exactly did the US and the EU agree on, how did the tariff arrangement come about, and how was it communicated? What are the consequences? These are the questions Volker Finthammer, Doris Simon, and Peter Kapern discussed in Deutschlandfunk’s politics podcast. Once again, the strength of the format and the broadcaster becomes clear. When a situation arises, they can connect correspondents from Berlin, Brussels, and Washington, each bringing in their expertise from the ground. I don’t share the thesis raised in the title. The outcome of the negotiations reflects the balance of power, but the details are still unresolved. And how long this result will hold remains uncertain.

Episode 434 of The Rest Is Politics unpacks a major diplomatic shift as the UK, France, and Canada formally recognize Palestinian statehood. Hosts Rory Stewart and Alastair Campbell examine how the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and Israel’s hardline policies have accelerated Western consensus, sparking renewed debate over the two-state solution. The conversation also connects these moves to President Trump’s sweeping tariffs on Brazil, India, and Switzerland, highlighting the global ripple effects of shifting alliances and hardline economic strategies. Listen for a comprehensive breakdown of the new factors compelling West to recognize Palestinian statehood on Apple Podcasts.

The Geopolitical Economy Report episode “How the USA exploits Europe, treating its ‚allies‘ like vassals” examines the EU’s growing economic and strategic dependence on Washington under Donald Trump. Political economist Ben Norton highlights how one-sided trade and energy deals, punitive tariffs, and pressure to boost military spending have entrenched U.S. dominance, forcing Europe to rely on costly American LNG, cut welfare for defense budgets, and sacrifice strategic autonomy. He argues that Trump’s aggressive tactics, from “unequal treaties” to Nord Stream’s sabotage, reveal the transatlantic elite’s vested interest in Atlanticism. Without a decisive shift, Norton warns, Europe risks cementing its role as a U.S. vassal. Watch the full video on Geopolitical Economy Report’s Youtube channel.

The Financial Times reports that the EU’s latest banking stress test shows European banks are now far stronger than in previous years, with healthier profitability, robust capital buffers, and greater resilience against potential shocks. This matters because a stable banking sector underpins Europe’s ability to weather geopolitical uncertainty, rising interest rates, and external economic pressures. For policymakers, it signals that the euro area’s financial system is better prepared to support investment, credit flows, and economic growth key elements for Europe’s strategic autonomy and credibility in global financial governance. Read the full report on Financial Times.

The 17th BRICS Summit in Rio de Janeiro (July 2025) underscored the bloc’s push for multilateralism, international law, and a fairer global order. With 11 members including newcomers Indonesia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE—plus nine partners, leaders adopted a Joint Declaration with 126 commitments on hunger eradication, climate action, technology, peace, and security. Key economic outcomes included calls to reform IMF quotas and expand emerging economies’ role in global finance. The summit also condemned U.S. and Israeli military actions in Iran and Gaza, while backing peace efforts in Syria and Sudan. Read the takeaways and projections on the Stimson Center website.

The OECD’s International Trade Statistics for the first quarter of 2025 reveal notable global shifts: G20 merchandise trade rose, with exports up 2.0% and imports up 3.1%, driven by strong performance in the European Union and the United States. North American trade was particularly robust, as US exports grew by 3.5% and imports surged by 19.0% in anticipation of higher tariffs. Europe’s export growth was led by the UK (+4.7%) and the EU (+2.8%), with Germany’s exports up 0.8%. East Asia saw mixed outcomes, as China’s exports increased slightly (1.1%) but imports fell by 3.7%. Services trade results were varied: US exports posted mild growth (+0.4%), while Canada, France, and Germany experienced contractions. Read the full report as a pdf on OECD’s webiste.

The „Energy to Ear“ podcast, featuring researchers Kristina Nienhaus and Felix Nitsch from the German Aerospace Center’s Institute of Networked Energy Systems, offers a compelling discussion on the resilience and cost-effectiveness of interconnected European energy grids. Released in August 2025, the episode titled „Europe’s power grids – connected, volatile, indispensable“ dives into how past extreme weather events inform the future design of energy systems in Germany and Central Europe through the VERMEER research project. It highlights the challenges posed by climate change on renewable energy production, emphasizing the need for flexibility and interconnected power market zones to balance natural fluctuations and ensure a reliable power supply. Listen to the full episode on DLR Institute of Networked Energy Systems website.

In a recent video, former President Donald Trump claimed credit for halting the Nord Stream pipeline, which transported Russian gas directly to Germany. The move, framed by Trump as a strategic victory, has significantly altered Europe’s energy landscape by increasing EU’s reliance on U.S. oil and gas supplies. This move has sparked intense debate about the long-term consequences for European autonomy and energy costs. Critics argue that by effectively severing a key direct energy link, Europe’s dependence on transatlantic imports has grown, which raises questions about the resilience and diversification of the EU’s energy strategy. To understand what exactly is the Nord Stream, watch the full video on Geopolitical Economy Report Youtube’s channel.

The European Central Bank (ECB) and the European Banking Authority (EBA) have released a detailed FAQ on the 2025 stress test for euro area banks. It is designed to assess the resilience of 96 major banks under severe economic scenarios. The test simulates adverse events like rising tariffs, disrupted supply chains, and inflation shocks to evaluate how banks can withstand economic pressures and maintain capital adequacy. This exercise is critical for identifying vulnerabilities in the banking sector and guiding future supervisory measures to safeguard financial stability in the eurozone. It also reflects ongoing efforts to integrate emerging risks, including climate-related financial threats, into the oversight framework. For more details, visit the official ECB’s webiste.

Germany and Kenya’s migration agreement, signed in September 2024, sets up new legal pathways for skilled Kenyan workers, trainers, and students to move to Germany, while Kenya agrees to facilitate the repatriation of Kenyan nationals, including those with expired documents. Lauded as a win-win initiative, the pact reflects Germany’s pressing need to address its labor shortages amid demographic changes, and Kenya’s efforts to create opportunities for its youthful population, much of which faces unemployment. The deal exemplifies a blend of humanitarian rhetoric and realpolitik, offering coordinated, regulated migration and return procedures. Read more on Diplomacy Berlin’s website.

After a brisk start, Latin America’s growth momentum faltered in the third quarter of 2025, as noted in KPMG’s latest outlook. Lower consumer demand, persistent inflation, and more restrictive financial conditions have been exacerbated by softer exports to China and commodity price swings. The slowdown reverberates well beyond the region. Sectors ranging from automotive to agriculture are watching regional trends closely, balancing exposure in Latin America against shifting economic prospects at home, as analysts predict this cooling may temper European growth ambitions linked to Latin America for the remainder of the year. You can know more about it on KPMG’s website.

Every Friday there’s a new episode of the Funk podcast hosted by Julia Emmrich and Carlotta Richter. The focus is on the Chancellor and the work of the federal government. Sometimes guests are invited as well. It’s easy listening, but it doesn’t quite satisfy me. I’d like one of the hosts to occasionally put on CDU glasses or play devil’s advocate. A bit more friction would do the format good. It would make it easier to bring out how the Chancellor and the CDU really operate. You can find the podcast on platforms such as Podcast.de.

In his latest film, Arthur Franck tells the story and prehistory of the 1975 CSCE Final Conference. The conference brought together the President of the United States, the leader of the Soviet Union, and all other countries of Western Europe and the Warsaw Pact. The aim was to reshape relations between East and West. Looking back, the treaty agreed upon there marked the beginning of the end of the Cold War.The film is composed entirely of archival footage and offers top-class viewing. Bjarne Mädel is the German narrator. You can find the film in the ARD Mediathek.

Windfall effects amounting to €2.8 billion annually—that’s the estimate from the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW Köln) on the Active Pension, one of the Union’s central pension policy proposals during the federal election campaign. However, during the campaign, it was always argued that the Active Pension would motivate people to work more. But is that really realistic? The available data suggest that work motives are primarily not financial in nature. The Active Pension is part of the current pension package. Its implementation is essentially a done deal. I’m curious to see whether the debate will gain momentum again. The analysis was written for IW Köln by Martin Beznoska, Ruth Schüler, and Stefanie Seele. You can read it on the institute’s website.

This episode of “The Week That Was in Europe” features Moritz Schularick, President of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, as he explores how Europe’s changing geopolitical context is reshaping its economic future. The conversation addresses the impact of an increasingly assertive Russia, ambiguous US commitments to European security, and China’s evolving role in global markets. Schularick discusses what these geopolitical shifts mean for Europe’s economic strategies, the stability of its industrial base, and the policy responses needed to safeguard growth and resilience in turbulent times. For informed, accessible analysis on the intersection of politics and economics in Europe today, listen to the full episode on Apple Podcasts.

The article reports that the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to incorporate a „climate factor“ into its lending criteria for banks, signaling a strategic move to align monetary policy with the EU’s climate goals. This initiative aims to encourage banks to increase financing for sustainable projects by providing preferential treatment to those demonstrating strong climate risk management and green investment portfolios. The policy shift reflects growing recognition of climate change as a systemic financial risk and reinforces the ECB’s commitment to support the EU’s transition to a low-carbon economy. By adjusting collateral frameworks and lending operations, the ECB seeks to influence banks’ behavior, incentivizing them to integrate environmental considerations into their risk assessments and lending decisions. This development highlights the expanding role of central banks in addressing climate change beyond traditional monetary policy tools. For comprehensive details, see the full article on Reuters.

How do I present a study in a YouTube video? Finanzfluss did a pretty good job with a study from the Cologne Institute for Economic Research (IW Köln) comparing wealth across different age groups. The message behind it is to highlight where potential gaps exist in retirement provision. The political message is quite clear: 12 million Germans are invested in the stock market, and more and more of them are young people. Proposals to significantly raise taxes here could become quite unattractive.

The European Commission’s proposal for the EU budget from 2028 to 2034 is now on the table. The Jacques Delors Centre (Hertie School) has analyzed the document and outlined the aspects that will shape the debate. The key issues are more flexibility for the Commission and the Member States in how funds are used, and the introduction of additional EU taxes. I find the latter particularly interesting, because this is where real fundamental questions arise. Is the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) a good idea, or is it harmful to the economy? If it turns out to be harmful, it would be disastrous to cement it in place just because of its importance for the EU budget. A similar issue exists with the planned tobacco tax. Higher tobacco taxes strengthen organized crime, since they make it more attractive for consumers to buy untaxed products. You can find the policy brief on the Hertie School’s website.

This episode of Bruegel’s „The Sound of Economics“ podcast examines the investment patterns of insurance firms and pension funds, crucial providers of long-term capital for Europe’s economic growth and infrastructure. Featuring experts from the European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (EIOPA) and Bruegel researchers, the dialogue explores where these funds invest globally, how much remains within Europe, and the policy challenges in promoting patient, sustainable capital flows to address the continent’s investment needs. The discussion underscores the role of effective regulation and transparency in enhancing public trust and optimizing capital markets to deliver lasting social and economic value. For the full episode, listen directly on Bruegel’s website.

The Financial Times documentary “Germany’s Spending Gamble” documents Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s historic 2025 move to loosen the country’s strict constitutional debt brake, unlocking €500 billion for urgent investments in infrastructure and defense. Facing decades of austerity, crumbling schools, roads, and transport, alongside growing external security threats, Germany is betting on large-scale public spending to modernize its economy and military capabilities. This decisive break from fiscal conservatism aims to stimulate growth, enhance state effectiveness, and secure Europe against geopolitical uncertainties. However, the success of this gamble depends on overcoming bureaucratic hurdles, resource constraints, demographic pressures, and managing political opposition, especially from far-right factions ready to capitalize on any failures. Germany’s spending pivot may reshape both its own future and Europe’s strategic and economic landscape. For more, see the full documentary on the Financial Times YouTube-Channel.

The article explores how energy infrastructures have become focal points for both competition and cooperation among major powers in these strategically significant regions. It highlights the contrasting dynamics where Central Asia experiences significant collaboration between the US, Japan, Russia, and China within multilateral and bilateral frameworks, while South-East Asia sees limited great power cooperation on energy issues. The study emphasizes that energy regionalism arises not only from rivalries but also from overlapping strategic interests, with regional agency playing a crucial role in shaping energy transitions and enhancing stability amid great power competition. This comparative analysis sheds light on the complex interplay between historical legacies, geopolitical ambitions, and regional strategies in shaping Asia’s energy future. To read further, see the full article in Oxford Academic.

The 2025 US-EU trade deal, announced by President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, sets a 15% tariff on nearly all EU exports to the US, including automobiles and manufactured goods, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30%. Key sectors like pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, timber, and copper will see phased tariff reductions, while tariffs on steel and aluminium remain at 50%, with plans to transition to a quota system. The EU commits to purchasing $750 billion in US energy products over three years and investing $600 billion in the US by 2029. The deal aims to reduce trade tensions and provide stability, but has faced criticism in Europe for its asymmetric terms that may impact EU competitiveness, particularly affecting German industries. For more details, see the full Reuters coverage here.

The July 2025 Eurostat report highlights the euro area’s trade resilience amid global uncertainties. In May 2025, the euro area’s trade surplus rose to €16.2 billion, driven by strong performance in chemicals and steady gains in machinery and vehicles, alongside a reduced energy deficit. The EU overall had a €13.1 billion surplus, up from €8.9 billion the previous year, despite a decline in surpluses in machinery and vehicles. This reflects a complex trade environment where energy import challenges persist but are balanced by robust manufacturing exports. Policymakers should focus on enhancing competitiveness in key sectors and advancing energy diversification and efficiency to maintain economic stability and strengthen Europe’s global position. You can explore the detailed data and analysis on Eurostat.

Rüdiger Bachmann has once again delivered. In a powerful report for the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), he dissects Trumpism into its components, traces the economic development of the USA since Donald Trump took office, and urges Europeans and Germans to say goodbye to transatlanticism. The report was published before the announcement of the tariff deal. It very clearly shows that the only reliable element of the American government is its unreliability. I especially liked the chapter “Internet egdelordism, machismo, and incelism.” You can find the report on the Institute’s website.

The agreement between the EU and the US in the trade dispute has been heavily criticized by business associations and politicians. Those who have looked at the White House’s communication will have their critical stance reinforced. The justification for the negotiation outcome is that Europe cannot defend itself against Russia without the US, so more was not achievable. But what will the consequences be? Can the EU chart a course toward defense-political independence and economic strength? And what does the deal mean for Europe’s relationship with the US? Sympathy, friendship, solidarity, etc., are probably off the table for now. And this applies across the entire political spectrum.

The latest episode of the Berlin Playbook Podcast, „Merz und Macron: Vom Flirt zur Krise“, delivers a timely behind the scenes look at the evolving and sometimes tense relationship between German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron. As Macron visits Berlin, Politico unpacks key flashpoints: disagreements over EU-subsidized nuclear projects, stalled defense initiatives (like the FCAS fighter jet and MGCS tank), and the deadlock on the Mercosur trade agreement. Expert analysis explores why the historic Franco-German “engine” is sputtering just as Europe faces critical choices on trade, security, and future integration. This is essential listening for diplomats and trade professionals seeking real-time insights into Europe’s power dynamics, negotiation hurdles, and the state of EU policy leadership in the summer of 2025. To listen to the full podcast, tune in on Apple Podcast.

The documentary Our Forgotten European Stars | Ep. 1: Spinelli, created by EU Made Simple in collaboration with the Union of European Federalists (UEF), tells the remarkable story of Altiero Spinelli, a visionary imprisoned by fascists in 1941 who imagined a united Europe. When exiled to a remote prison island, Spinelli and fellows secretly authored the groundbreaking Ventotene Manifesto, a manifesto advocating for a federal Europe to prevent future wars by breaking from nationalism, thus laying the foundation for European federalism and the future EU. The film traces Spinelli’s journey from political prisoner to influential European Parliament member, highlighting his relentless fight for democratic unity amidst war and post-war challenges. It also reveals the radical origins of the EU integration project and the sacrifices of its founding fathers and mothers. For a deeper understanding of Europe’s transnational political roots and federalist ideals, watch the documentary on YouTube.

You must know about the special section in the July 2025 issue of International Affairs titled „Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific: bridging the divide in an age of great power rivalry.“ This collection addresses how prevailing Indo-Pacific strategies mostly focus on maritime domains, often sidelining continental Eurasia and central Asia’s strategic importance. This section explains how China views Central Asia as pivotal for its Eurasian ambitions, particularly under its Belt and Road Initiative, while other Indo-Pacific countries respond differently. Importantly, Central Asian states are seen as active agents employing hedging, diversification, and omni-enmeshment strategies to balance relations with China, Russia, and Indo-Pacific actors. This reframes how policymakers and analysts should view the Indo-Pacific and Central Asia jointly rather than separately, reflecting complex geopolitical realities. You can read more on this important synthesis at the official publication here: Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific special section.Central Asia and the Indo-Pacific special section.

The 25th EU-China summit, held on 24 July 2025 in Beijing to mark 50 years of diplomatic relations, brought together EU leaders António Costa, Ursula von der Leyen, and Kaja Kallas with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang. The discussions covered bilateral relations, global challenges like climate change, and geopolitical issues. Although both sides committed to deepening cooperation on climate and multilateralism, the EU stressed the need for concrete progress on trade imbalances, market access, and fair economic relations built on reciprocity. The EU urged China to refrain from supporting Russia’s war in Ukraine and to promote peace based on international law. Human rights concerns and regional security issues, including tensions in the Taiwan Strait, were also reiterated by EU leaders. For full details, see the EU press release on the 25th EU-China summit.

The study “Solving Europe’s AI Talent Equation” (Interface & CEPS, 2025) offers a rigorous analysis of the European Artificial Intelligence (AI) labour market. It underscores the acute and persistent mismatches between demand and supply across skill tiers related to AI. Although the mid-level technical roles  (software and data analytics) are well-sourced, the foundational AI literacy remains critically under-provisioned. In some EU member states, up to 52% of entry-level positions require basic competence, whereas only 20% candidate possess the required standard. Similarly, the demand for advanced research and engineering expertise surpasses supply by a factor of two. If left unaddressed, Left unaddressed, these asymmetries threaten to undermine Europe’s strategic ambitions in AI innovation and technological sovereignty. Therefore, a comprehensive, multi-level interventions are essential. For a full breakdown and the comparative data, consult the complete Solving Europe’s AI Talent Equation report.

Trade and security policy are intertwined; Europe is caught in the Trump dilemma. In a sharp commentary for Carnegie Europe, Rym Momtaz criticizes Europe’s negotiation tactics towards Trump. She argues that the approach aims to avoid short-term pain, but in the long run, the damage to Europe will be even greater. This is certainly a valid perspective.

Anna Loll has investigated the use of Palantir software at the state and federal levels for Deutschlandfunk. The topic has several layers: the failure of European companies to offer competitive software, data protection concerns, criticism of the company’s founders, and the peculiarities of federalism.

Staffbase, a company that offers digital solutions for employee communication, conducted a worldwide survey on this topic together with YouGov. What I find interesting is that non-desk employees are much harder to reach, which is basically common sense. We should think much more about how our information/messages are received by different target groups. Another notable point is that crisis communication from their own company is rated better than everyday internal communication. The message is simple: it is always worth communicating actively—even in politics. In the survey—linked above is the summary by Philipp Scherber as well as the full study—you can learn which communication channels work best.

Recent Ipsos poll results show the populist, euroskeptic party Reform UK clearly leading British voter support with 34 percent. Reform UK has a 9-point lead over the Labour Party and a 19-point lead over the Conservatives. Labour is registering its lowest support since October 2019 at just 25 percent, while the Conservatives are at their lowest ever recorded by Ipsos with 15 percent. Reform UK enjoys particularly strong voter base loyalty, while traditional major parties are losing support to fringe groups. The collapse of the two-party system in the UK is an ongoing process, which can also be seen as relevant to Germany. In Germany, signs of the breakup of the traditional large parties have also appeared for some time. The results of the SPD and CDU/CSU in the last federal election made this very clear. The first weeks of the Merz government initially improved public perception, but recent polls show that sentiment is worsening again. The alliance of a weak Union and an even weaker SPD is on shaky ground. Doubts are already emerging whether the coalition can last a full legislative term, and the government has been in office for less than 100 days. Though the historic defense agreement between Germany and Great Britain is a reason for joy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to the island surely brought some worries. He might well be wondering whether the next German-British agreement will possibly be signed by Alice Weidel and Nigel Farage.

In the latest episode of Politico’s EU Confidential, host Sarah Wheaton and Brussels experts Gregorio Sorgi and Bartosz Brzeziński break down the politics behind the European Commission’s nearly €2 trillion budget proposal for 2028–2034. The discussion clarifies which sectors stand to gain notably defense and competitiveness, with a fivefold funding increase and which face cuts, such as agriculture, sparking fierce debate. As EU leaders begin negotiations, the episode probes Ursula von der Leyen’s leadership amid a chaotic rollout and assesses how internal political tensions could shape the final deal. The conversation then turns to transatlantic trade, dissecting Brussels’ options in response to threats of 30% U.S. tariffs on EU exports, with analysis from Politico Pro’s Camille Gijs, Ari Hawkins, and Doug Busvine. For a timely, insider view on the EU’s budget battles and geopolitical challenges, tune in here on Apple Podcast.

Berlin may be Germany’s political center, but it sharply deviates from the classic capital city blueprint by having little impact on the national economy. This documentary examines how Berlin’s 20th-century split, post-WWII industrial decline, and Cold War division broke its economic momentum, turning the city into a magnet for artists, squatters, and counterculture drawn by affordable space and creative freedom. While efforts to transform Berlin into a financial hub faltered, tourism and alternative scenes flourished, with the city embracing its “poor but sexy” image. Recent decades saw a startup boom and rising investment, yet gentrification now threatens Berlin’s unique cultural fabric as it seeks to balance growth with its distinctive identity. For a deeper dive into Berlin’s economic paradox and cultural tensions, watch the documentary on DW.

As the Schengen Agreement marks its 40th anniversary, Europe’s passport-free zone remains a pillar of integration with over 3.5 million people crossing internal borders daily and nearly 70 percent of Europeans supporting free movement, according to the European Commission’s 2024 Eurobarometer. Yet, migration pressures, security concerns, and political shifts have exposed vulnerabilities, with temporary border checks and delayed rollout of smart border systems like the Entry/Exit System (EES) and the European Travel Information and Authorization System (ETIAS) highlighting the need for stronger, collective action. The Commission’s 2025 Schengen Report urges member states to avoid unilateral measures, strengthen external borders, and deepen cooperation in policing, asylum, and digital infrastructure. For diplomatic and business professionals in Berlin, the lessons are clear: free movement is a vital asset for Europe’s competitiveness and daily life; smart, interoperable borders are essential for balancing openness and security; and solidarity, not solo national moves, will determine Schengen’s resilience in the decade ahead. For full insights, read the EU’s latest analysis here and explore the challenges and milestones at ETIAS.com.

Transatlantic economic ties now pivot as much on services as on goods, with digitally delivered sectors like intellectual property, business, and IT growing rapidly sometimes outpacing traditional goods trade, yet remaining undervalued in public debate and policy negotiations. The U.S. consistently runs a services trade surplus with the EU (€109 billion in 2023, according to Eurostat), driven by American strengths in finance, tech, and IP, while Europe’s goods trade surplus (€157 billion in 2023) reflects its industrial base. Despite some data discrepancies, the overall transatlantic trade relationship is remarkably balanced, with the difference between EU and U.S. exports standing at just 3% of total trade in 2023. The Kiel Institute Policy Brief No. 193 argues for reducing intra-EU services barriers, using services as a diplomatic tool in EU-U.S. talks, and, if necessary, deploying strategic measures like digital taxes or privacy rules emphasizing that services are now central to competitiveness, innovation, and the resilience of the transatlantic alliance. For the full analysis, see the Kiel Institute’s policy brief (PDF).

The 2025 Deloitte Human Capital Trends report, based on a survey of 14,000 business and HR leaders across 95 countries, reveals a striking disconnect: while 77 precent agree that integrating AI with human capabilities is essential for success, only 7 percent feel very ready to meet this challenge. Seventy-one percent expect AI to significantly redesign work within 3–5 years, yet just 16 percent say their organizations are actively preparing employees for this shift. Notably, those investing in both human sustainability and technology are 1.4 times more likely to achieve strong human and business outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to bridge the gap between AI ambition and workforce preparedness. For deeper insights and the complete set of trends, explore the full Deloitte 2025 Global Human Capital Trends report.

Negotiations between the EU and the US on tariffs are intensifying. The trade imbalance disadvantaging Europe regarding services trade is repeatedly mentioned in the debate. This accounts for about three-quarters of the US deficit in goods trade. However, whether the EU will quickly agree on implementing a digital tax / digital tariff is questionable, as unanimity is required. Since most digital services are routed through Ireland, Ireland’s approval would be surprising. It is worthwhile to read the current study by Frank Bickenbach, Holger Görg, and Wan-Hsin Liu for the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.

For the Zeit economics podcast “Ist das eine Blase?” (“Is this a Bubble?”), Jens Tönnesmann and Zacharias Zacharakis spoke with IW director Michael Hüther about the origins of the constitutional change that enabled increased federal and state borrowing, as well as about the new federal budget. I like the format; picking one economic policy topic at a time and taking a closer look works well. The podcast has a light-hearted tone, making it accessible to listeners who aren’t engaged in economic policy every day. What I miss is a difference in positioning between the two hosts—one Keynes, one Friedman, for example. A bit more friction would benefit the format. You can find the episode, among others, on the Zeit website.

Bendix Hügelmann examined the TikTok campaigns of the leading candidates in the federal election for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation. His lessons learned: The hook is decisive, rapid response is crucial, platform and trend knowledge are essential, and engagement is the key factor to optimize for. Here is the summary, which also contains the link to the full analysis—definitely worth a read.

A team from the IAB Institute, using the Greenness of Jobs Index (GOJI), found that companies with sustainable business models (“green skills”) have an advantage in the competition for skilled workers. For this, companies were divided into sustainable, non-sustainable, and those without any immediate connection to sustainability (such as social services, etc.). I find the research idea interesting. The hypothesis seems plausible, but I am not fully convinced, because in opinion research, sustainability is a topic, but usually other factors are more important. A more detailed analysis would be better in order to be able to understand each research step and the data basis. You can find the analysis on the IAB website.

Most of the talks and lectures from re:publica 25 can now be found as videos on YouTube. This includes the presentation of the tech-elite study by Philipp Staab and Lion Hubrich. Based on the staffing of digital roles in startups, companies, and associations, they identified 250 people whom they count among the German tech elite. There is, of course, room for debate about whether German tech companies are successful in international competition. What is, however, somewhat reassuring about the study’s findings is that this elite mostly studied at completely ordinary German universities.

Martin Biewen, together with a team from the University of Tübingen and on behalf of the Federal Association of Personnel Service Providers (GVP), examined wage differentials between temporary agency workers and other employees in comparable positions. Using regression models, it is quite possible to calculate which employee characteristics influence pay—such as company tenure, age, nationality, etc. The analysis concludes that the pay gap between temporary agency workers and other employees, often cited in public debate, narrows significantly when taking into account the characteristics that explain differences in compensation. This may sound familiar; a similar question arises in the debate about the gender pay gap. You can find the analysis on the GVP website.

LinkedIn is becoming an increasingly important platform for political communication — a trend underscored by this brief analysis from Jan Wehrhold. According to his findings, around one-third of members of the German Bundestag are active on LinkedIn, meaning they regularly post and, in some cases, engage in debates. Their staff members also contribute to the platform’s growing relevance.

Still, LinkedIn is not the “new Twitter.” Broad, dynamic political debates have yet to take off on the platform — at least consistently. For now, meaningful engagement remains the exception, appearing only in isolated posts. (MB)

For anyone interested in the topic of lifestyle-based voter segmentation, the latest study by Jochen Roose for the Konrad Adenauer Foundation is a must-read. Based on Gunnar Otte’s sociological methodology, the study uses data collected in 2023 to create a typology of how different social groups engage with politics — across work, leisure, and everyday life. The findings are especially relevant for campaign planning. The study sheds light on how large specific target groups are, what political positions they tend to hold, and how they live day to day. It’s a valuable resource for developing targeted political messaging and strategy.

Given recent shifts in public opinion, one might expect even greater support for the AfD today — something to consider when interpreting the data. You can find the full study on the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s website.

On Friday, former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened the EU with tariffs of up to 50% — more than double the original 20%. “Our talks with them (the EU) are going nowhere!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. European leaders quickly responded: EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič emphasized that the EU remains committed to a mutually beneficial trade agreement based on “respect, not threats,” but warned that Europe is also prepared “to defend our interests.” France’s Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin echoed the call for “de-escalation” while affirming Europe’s readiness to “respond.”

Across Europe, concern is mounting over the potential economic fallout from Trump’s approach to global trade. According to a recent Ipsos survey conducted in Croatia, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden:

• 78% of respondents believe Trump’s policies will have a negative impact on the global economy.

• 74% expect negative effects for Europe.

• 62% foresee economic harm even to the United States itself.

Swedes were the most concerned, with 57% predicting a very negative impact. Gender and generational differences also emerged: women (78%) and Gen Z (75%) respondents expressed more pessimism than men (70%) and Baby Boomers (72%). In terms of how Europe should respond to potential U.S. tariffs:

• 23% support strengthening internal EU trade by reducing internal barriers.

• 20% favor retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.

• Croatians (25%) and the French (29%) were the most supportive of these respective approaches.

• More women (26%) and Gen Z respondents (25%) support reducing intra-EU trade barriers than men (20%) and Baby Boomers (20%).

A clear majority (63%) believe that EU institutions — not national governments — are best positioned to respond to U.S. trade threats. This sentiment is strongest in the Netherlands (76%) and weakest in Croatia (46%). Once again, women (64%) and Gen Z (64%) were slightly more supportive of the EU’s leading role than men (61%) and Baby Boomers (62%).

The economic risks of higher tariffs are widely recognized:

• 94% expect rising consumer prices (98% in Sweden).

• 88% fear job losses (93% in Spain).

• 85% anticipate lower wages (91% in Spain).

• 92% foresee an economic slowdown (97% in Spain).

In summary, the Ipsos data reveals widespread European anxiety about Trump’s trade policies and strong support for a united EU response. To ensure economic resilience and stability, the EU must prioritize deeper internal integration and present a coordinated front in dealing with future U.S. trade tensions.

About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.

Anselm Küsters and Matthias Störring have authored a paper for the Ludwig Erhard Forum exploring the role of private media in Germany from a regulatory policy perspective. Notably, public broadcasters are intentionally left out of the analysis — and for good reason. The authors argue that private media play a central role in holding democratic institutions accountable.

As the paper rightly points out, major digital and social media platforms are both competitors and collaborators for traditional media outlets. This dual relationship opens up meaningful avenues for regulation — particularly in shaping advertising markets and ensuring fair competition. (MB)

In a recent commentary published by Carnegie Europe, Rosa Balfour argues that former U.S. President Donald Trump’s confrontational and undiplomatic style may have inadvertently pushed Europe toward long-overdue reforms.

According to Balfour, Trump’s political pressure has forced the EU to take greater responsibility for its own security, invest in a more resilient internal market, and pursue new trade agreements. However, she cautions that this shift is not without risks. Populist parties across EU member states could exploit the inevitable tensions and frictions that come with structural change.

Her conclusion: While Trump may not have intended it, his presidency may have compelled Europe to confront its vulnerabilities — and potentially emerge stronger. (MB)

Poland is a key European partner. For newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the visit to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw — immediately following his trip to Paris — symbolized a “fresh start” in bilateral relations. Now, Poland is heading into a pivotal presidential election this weekend, one that could significantly shape the country’s future political landscape and its relations with international partners.

The current president, Andrzej Duda, a socially conservative figure, has faced widespread criticism — particularly over judicial reforms that have greatly undermined the independence of Poland’s judiciary and brought the country into conflict with the European Union.

Currently leading in the polls is the liberal Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski of the Civic Platform party. He represents the progressive electorate and champions LGBTQ rights, the legalization of same-sex partnerships, and liberalized abortion laws. His closest challenger is the independent candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing populist Law and Justice Party (PiS). Nawrocki promotes a national-conservative social agenda.

This election carries major implications for Germany as well. A victory for Trzaskowski could signal a thaw in the often tense German-Polish relations under the PiS-led government. Conversely, a Nawrocki win could further strain diplomatic ties.

According to an April Ipsos survey, the top three concerns among Polish citizens were:

1. The state of the healthcare system – 43%

2. Risk of military conflict between nations – 39%

3. Inflation – 27%

Overall, 59% of Poles believed the country was headed in the wrong direction, while 41% felt it was on the right track. In comparison, the sentiment in Germany during the same period was even more pessimistic: 75% believed the country was on the wrong path, versus 25% who saw it positively.

About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.

For the Politsnack blog of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, Katja Christina Plate explores the annulled presidential elections in Romania. She describes how various campaigns and actors interacted to shape the outcome.

The previously unknown candidate, Călin Georgescu, won the first round — in clear violation of the country’s electoral law. His success highlights the growing power of digital election campaigns. Yet, even Georgescu’s right-wing populist successor achieved an outstanding result in the rerun, securing 40 percent of the vote.

Do these results simply reflect Romania’s political mood? Or were the campaigns so effective that they swayed voters in a lasting way? One thing is certain: elections today are also being won online. (MB)

Newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is in Paris in search of European momentum. But on the western side of the Rhine, political dynamics are also stalling. Much like in Germany, French citizens are increasingly concerned about rising crime and violence (37%). Inflation (31%) and uncontrolled immigration (26%) are also among the top issues on the public agenda in France.

There are other striking parallels between France and Germany. At the end of March, Marine Le Pen — parliamentary leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (formerly Front National) — was convicted for misusing European Union funds. She has been barred from holding political office or standing in any election for the next five years. This decision could prevent her from running in the 2027 presidential elections — a race in which she was previously considered a strong contender to succeed President Emmanuel Macron.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the possibility of legally sidelining political opponents is also under debate. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) recently classified the AfD as a confirmed far-right extremist party, reigniting discussions around a potential party ban. Merz would do well to examine how France is navigating similar legal and political tensions. Following her conviction, Le Pen was quick to portray herself as the innocent target of politically motivated justice — a narrative that mirrors the AfD’s reaction to the BfV’s ruling.

Yet banning right-wing populist parties — even when legally justified — is unlikely to turn their supporters into champions of democracy. Instead, we might consider the point raised by SPD politician Katarina Barley on the talk show Markus Lanz, where she described the rise of populism as part of a broader international socio-political trend.

About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.

Carline Mohr joins the Kunst der Freiheit podcast hosted by Benjamin-Immanuel Hoff, former Head of the State Chancellery of Thuringia. The conversation centers on communication and social media — and how good communication always needs good storytelling.

Together, they explore the „why“ and „how“ of stories in a thoughtful and insightful discussion. The episode also delves into how the media should deal with the far-right AfD party. Mohr calls on journalists to apply greater rigor when covering the AfD, arguing that more careful reporting could help avoid unintentionally amplifying the party’s message.

You can listen to the podcast on this and other platforms. (MB)

The fear among Germans of a military conflict has increased by 11 percentage points since February 2025. This may partly be due to the erratic behavior of our transatlantic partners, who in recent weeks and months have done much to unsettle NATO allies (annexation of Canada, invasion of Greenland and Panama) and are increasingly abandoning the familiar diplomatic stage. Germany finds itself in a situation where, in the words of JD Vance, we can no longer be “freeloaders” relying on American security guarantees. Instead of American “bailouts,” we now have to put on our own boots, fix bayonets, and defend our interests ourselves.

“Public Affairs in Times of Accelerated Politics / Higher Demands, Faster Action”: Vanessa Haumberger and Boris Binkowska from Gauly Advisors discuss in Kommunikationsmanager (page 42) how corporate lobbying has become increasingly crucial amid turbulent political environments. Political decisions now have significant impacts across various industries, making public affairs departments and their teams more important than ever. A second critical element is the role of social media: companies must maintain their own communication channels and reliable pathways to stakeholders to keep up with abrupt political changes. While the analysis is insightful, it reflects the expected perspective of a consultancy agency. You can read the full article in the Kommunikationsmanager issue here: Kommunikationsmanager 01/2025 (PDF).

The mayor of Istanbul and presidential candidate of Turkey’s Social Democratic Party, Ekrem İmamoğlu, has been imprisoned. In this podcast, Paul Ronzheimer speaks with journalist Deniz Yücel to explore the background and implications of this development. The episode illustrates how Turkey has steadily shifted from democracy toward authoritarianism under Erdogan’s rule.

When Erdogan was first elected, there was hope that he could balance religion and democracy in Turkey — but that hope has faded. The current situation serves as a warning for other democracies worldwide. Even in the United States, former President Donald Trump questioned democratic institutions during his brief tenure.

You can listen to the podcast here on Podigee.

Anyone who invested in highly praised ETFs like the MSCI World or S&P 500 is currently feeling the pain. The American stock market has slipped into the red in recent weeks. Surprisingly, this seems to bother incumbent President Donald Trump very little—even though one of his key (and controversial) advisors, Elon Musk, has suffered losses amounting to several billion dollars. While the falling Tesla stock price has various causes, economists have long warned that the MAGA doctrine could lead to negative economic consequences—higher inflation and even a recession.

An Ipsos survey now shows that Americans are worried about the impact of tariffs on prices. Let’s remember: rising prices were one of the main reasons voters made their choice in the US. Only 31 percent of Americans support Trump’s price stability policy. On other issues such as the economy, foreign policy, and corruption, satisfaction with the president also remains below 40 percent. The government’s slimming-down efforts are controversial as well, with 57 percent opposing mass layoffs of civil servants. The only area where Trump still enjoys strong support (49 percent) is immigration policy.

Despite these low approval ratings, Trump’s overall approval stands at 44 percent—still higher than that of his predecessor, Joe Biden. A small consolation for Elon Musk: the US president has shown solidarity and reportedly plans to buy a Tesla. Whether this is good marketing remains to be seen.

You can now stream this gripping English mini-series on Arte. It dives deep into the MeToo movement, media dynamics, public campaigns, and how reputations can be shaped—or destroyed—in the court of public opinion. The story kicks off when a well-known news anchor allegedly tells a sexist joke at a party, setting off a fast-paced, intense drama that plays out almost like a chamber piece, focused heavily on sharp dialogue and character interactions. The writing is tight, and the British cast delivers nuanced performances that really bring the tension and moral complexities to life.

You can watch all four episodes here on Arte: Douglas is Cancelled. It’s a must-watch if you’re interested in how media scandals unfold and the impact they have on individuals and society.

The D21 initiative has released its Digital Index for 2024/2025. The key message remains consistent with previous years: there is a clear connection between a person’s willingness to embrace digitalization and their personal prosperity. However, it’s important to note that this is not necessarily a direct cause-and-effect relationship, as many examples challenge this assumption.

The index highlights specific areas where Germany still needs to catch up in digital development. Ultimately, it’s up to each individual to take advantage of new digital opportunities. For the next government, the political challenge will be to create better incentives that encourage a more digitally engaged society.

You can find the full report and details here: D21 Digital Index 2024/2025.

The humiliation of Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office revealed just how far Donald Trump is willing to go to push his own interests. To get a clearer picture of how unwilling Trump is to tolerate opposition, check out this striking video of a cabinet meeting with Elon Musk: Watch here. Reflecting on the recent visits of Macron and Starmer to the US, it will be interesting to see what strategy Friedrich Merz adopts for his first meeting with Trump.

A recent comprehensive study by the IAB, BAMF, and DIW takes a close look at the living conditions and participation of Ukrainian refugees in Germany, using data collected up to January 2024. The findings show that over half of the respondents feel confident in their German language skills, and about 70 percent are actively taking part in integration courses. Employment rates are currently at 26 percent for men and 21 percent for women. For those interested in a deep dive into the details, the full report is available here: Living Conditions and Participation of Ukrainian Refugees in Germany (IAB Report).

Friedbert Meurer interviewed populism researcher Irina von Wiese for Deutschlandfunk. Von Wiese makes an interesting point: populist parties often switch issues around and actually hinder solving real problems. Their main aim is to capitalize on the failures of centrist parties. This could suggest that involving populist parties and sharing responsibility with them might be a good strategy — but von Wiese herself doesn’t fully agree with that idea. If you want to dive deeper into the interview, you can check it out here.

In her latest piece for Carnegie Europe, Rym Momtaz explores the growing tensions in the transatlantic relationship — especially between Germany and the United States. With Washington’s increasing tilt toward right-wing populist actors in Europe, questions arise about the long-term strategic intentions of U.S. foreign policy. Is this soft support for parties like France’s Rassemblement National or Germany’s AfD a deliberate effort to weaken EU unity? Momtaz argues that such actions, even if uncoordinated, risk undermining democratic cohesion on the continent just as geopolitical threats from Russia and China intensify. The article doesn’t just identify the problem — it issues a call to action. If Europe wants to maintain its influence and protect liberal democracy, it must respond with strength and unity. That means investing in its own security, reducing dependencies, and showing resilience in the face of external pressure. As the U.S. gears up for a potentially transformative election, European leaders have a narrowing window to shape the future of the alliance rather than simply react to it.

The whole “Hofnarr” (court jester) moment involving Chancellor Olaf Scholz stirred up headlines for a few days — but what actually went down? If you’re curious how the story blew up, how journalists handled it behind the scenes, and yes, even how Harald Christ throws a birthday party, this podcast episode has you covered.

In their usual candid and sharp style, Paul Ronzheimer and Filipp Piatov walk through the incident from multiple angles. It’s not just about the gossip — it also turns into a thoughtful look at media ethics and political storytelling. You can listen to the episode right here on Podigee

Anyone involved in politics or public speaking for some time has probably encountered rhetoric and may have even attended seminars on the topic. It’s always helpful to revisit the fundamentals from time to time to keep your skills sharp and identify areas for improvement. I found a great resource on the German website Rhetorik-Online that offers clear and practical advice on rhetoric, including body language, voice control, and speech structure. Although the site is in German, you can easily use a browser translation extension to access the content in your preferred language. This makes it a valuable tool for anyone looking to refine their communication skills, regardless of language. Just be aware that the site does include some promotional material, but the core advice is very useful.

The London-based Reuters Institute regularly publishes insightful analyses of media coverage. This analysis on the perception of climate protection reporting in eight countries (including Germany) highlights that interest in climate protection topics remains strong in the surveyed countries. The best advocates for climate protection are scientists, and reporting on natural disasters plays a key role in shaping public opinion. You can read the full report here.

The Berlin Code podcast by Linda Zervakis is a new weekly news podcast. I think that’s a good start since there is a lack of formats where reporters are actively sent out. However, I find the two reporters in this episode, Sarah Frühauf and Moritz Rödle, quite weak. They make their personal opinions very clear in the report segment. The problem could be easily fixed. If two reporters are involved and are supposed to include their opinions, one of them should have a conservative or liberal profile. Overall, the focus on last week’s migration applications is way too much on the supposed cooperation between the Union and the AfD. On the positive side, the interview by Zervakis with pollster Stefan Merz is very good. You can listen to this episode and more on podcast.de.

In their podcast episode “The Rest Is Classified: How China Spies: Trump, TikTok, and Taiwan,” David McCloskey and Gordon Corera explore how TikTok provides opportunities for Chinese intelligence to influence public opinion in selected countries. TikTok’s massive reach combined with a deep understanding of its algorithm and AI-driven content creation enables targeted propaganda campaigns to sway opinions effectively.

This episode highlights the growing challenges democracies face in controlling digital platforms where foreign powers can covertly spread misinformation. Understanding these tactics is crucial for policymakers, media, and citizens alike to safeguard the integrity of public discourse in an age dominated by social media and artificial intelligence. You can listen to the episode here.

At the recent European People’s Party (EPP) meeting last weekend in Berlin, a resolution was issued. The paper reads less radically than some of the statements made to the press by individual participants, which is not surprising. Alongside nearly ten EPP government leaders, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was also present. Suspending certain regulations for two years would be a step forward, but overall, the document has not sparked much enthusiasm among the business community. For that, there would have needed to be an agreement on abolishing regulations entirely. From a power-politics perspective, the meeting was notable. The EPP holds strong positions both in the European Parliament and the Council, giving them room to push back against the Commission when needed. You can read the full-resolution paper here.

Beyond concerns about funding—whether justified or not—fewer Germans support additional arms shipments to Ukraine. According to a recent Ipsos survey, nearly half of Germans (48%) believe that Germany should stop sending more weapons to Ukraine, while only 38% favor continuing or increasing arms exports.

Looking at the political landscape reveals a diverse picture. Supporters of the AfD and BSW are most opposed, with 88% (AfD) and 90% (BSW) against further deliveries. Meanwhile, the majority of Green (74%) and SPD (64%) supporters favor continued arms shipments. Notably, SPD support has declined slightly in recent months—from 69% in September 2024 to 64% today. Among CDU/CSU supporters, opinion is nearly split, with 49% in favor and 40% opposed, showing little change since September 2024. Support for arms deliveries among FDP (63%, up 10 points) and Left party supporters (44%, up 8 points) has increased noticeably since the last survey.

For full details, you can read the official Ipsos report here: Jede:r zweite Deutsche gegen weitere Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine | Ipsos. To learn more about Ipsos and their research, visit their main website: Ipsos Germany.

About the author: Robert Grimm, PhD, leads political and social research at Ipsos Germany.

A recent study conducted by the Friedrich Naumann Foundation and Demoskopie Allensbach sheds light on how Germans — especially young people — consume political information and how vulnerable they are to misinformation. The findings, although collected in December 2024, remain highly relevant.

The survey shows that public broadcasting continues to be the main news source for 64 percent of respondents, but half also express distrust in the media overall. Among those aged 16 to 35, social media plays a far greater role — with YouTube emerging as a particularly important platform.

Equally notable are the opinions on key political topics. Only 30 percent of respondents expressed support for continued aid to Ukraine, and climate protection met with increasing skepticism. These insights highlight the growing challenge of political communication in a fragmented media environment.

You can explore the full survey results and download the data here: Friedrich Naumann Foundation – Survey on Disinformation

A few years ago, who would’ve guessed that an MMA commentator’s podcast would become the go-to platform for global corporate news? In a surprisingly friendly conversation far from a hard-hitting interview, Mark Zuckerberg discusses ending fact‑checking on his platforms and defends Meta’s stance against EU fines. He paints a picture of the EU unfairly targeting his American company—a narrative that echoes Trump‑style rhetoric and hints at a peculiar view of international law.

After about an hour, the tone shifts: the pair chat about MMA, hunting, and firearms—entertaining, if you’re into that. What gives me pause, though, is Rogan’s use of populist buzzwords like “mainstream media” that tap into right‑wing codes.

Curious? You can listen to the discussion here on Podtail.

I recently came across an interesting interview with historian Timothy Ryback in Pragmaticus. He’s just published a book about how Hitler came to power, and the conversation digs into some striking similarities between Hitler and Trump, as well as the recent rise of populist parties across Europe.

One thing that really caught my attention was how Hitler often used humor in his speeches, especially when speaking in rural areas. It wasn’t just about politics — he knew people appreciated being entertained. That’s something we see today too: politicians who mix serious messages with a bit of showmanship.

Another parallel is the way established media pushed back against Hitler and the Nazis, much like how mainstream outlets often challenge populist groups like the AfD nowadays. In response, Hitler’s team got creative, using alternative ways to reach people. For example, he sometimes gave up to five speeches in a single day, which was only possible because the Nazi party chartered a plane to get him from place to place quickly.

It’s fascinating, yet unsettling, to see how history echoes current events. If you want to dig deeper, you can read the full interview here.

I don’t usually recommend podcasts I don’t personally enjoy, but Steve Bannon’s show is an exception. I don’t particularly like it because it is loud, aggressive, and filled with anger. Still, it’s worth tuning in just to get a feel for Bannon himself. This episode is especially interesting because it dives into the conflict between Bannon and Elon Musk, something you hardly hear about in Germany. It’s all about US work visas for skilled tech workers. Musk wants to keep these visas so tech companies can keep hiring programmers from abroad, while Bannon, along with parts of the MAGA movement, argues these jobs should go to Americans instead. If you’re curious, you can listen to the episode here on Apple Podcasts. There have been over ten episodes from Bannon on this topic just in the last few days!

A research team from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) analyzed how rising climate protection costs affect food prices in both richer and poorer countries. In poorer countries, these measures tend to have a stronger impact on consumer prices because agricultural raw materials make up a larger share of food costs. Most climate protection efforts put pressure on farmers. In wealthier countries, the cost of food processing and marketing plays a much bigger role. The study highlights the concrete effects of climate policies and offers important considerations for governments when designing these measures. You can read the full study here, It features detailed calculations for individual foods.

What role do podcasts play in modern election campaigns? A recent episode of The Focus Group Podcast – “It’s Not Like a Newscast” hosted by political strategist Sarah Longwell and journalist Tim Miller explores how high-reach podcasts are transforming political communication. The discussion highlights how these formats build trust with audiences who often reject traditional media, creating a powerful space for political influence.

Listeners tend to engage for extended periods, forming strong connections with hosts and often accepting the views presented without the skepticism typical of mainstream news. Political guests benefit from the conversational tone of podcasts, which allows them to express ideas more authentically and avoid the tension of hard-news interviews.

The episode also discusses how podcasts help campaigns reach audiences outside of their immediate political bubble. They allow parties to test new messages and mobilize support among voters who are less engaged through traditional channels. While Germany has no direct equivalent to a podcast like Joe Rogan’s, the format’s potential is clear. It presents an opportunity for political figures to engage with the public in deeper, more resonant ways. Podcasts are not just entertainment—they are becoming central tools in shaping political narratives, especially among younger and harder-to-reach demographics.

In the “Predictions 2025” survey by Ipsos, people from 33 countries were asked about their attitudes and expectations on various topics such as the economy, technology, environment, and society. Unsurprisingly, a significant majority (72%) of Germans rated 2024 negatively. This makes people in Germany significantly more pessimistic than the average across all surveyed countries (65%). However, Germany is not alone in this pessimism within Europe. In France, 79 percent of respondents said the year had gone rather badly. In the UK, 76 percent also viewed the past 12 months negatively. While this may be understandable for France—where fantastic Olympic Games were accompanied by political chaos (two governments since July)—one might expect that the British would feel more clarity and satisfaction after Labour’s landslide victory regarding their country’s social and political direction.

Yet, this is not the case. Ipsos’ survey results, unfortunately, show that new elections do not necessarily bring political calm to the population, nor do satisfaction ratings for a new government automatically rise—and stay high—overnight. After Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag and set the course for new elections, I hope that a stable (two-party) coalition government is quickly formed after the February 2025 elections, one that tackles the country’s challenges purposefully. However, new elections alone are not the solution. The new government will have to make difficult decisions that will not please everyone.

These insights have been shared by Robert Grimm, who holds a PhD in sociology and leads political and social research at the market, opinion, and social research institute Ipsos Germany.