The latest Bertelsmann Stiftung policy brief paints a sober outlook for Europe: moderate growth at best through 2025, driven by weak investment, sluggish productivity and the lingering aftershocks of disrupted supply chains. High financing costs continue to weigh on companies that want to modernize, and governments face limited fiscal room as aging infrastructure and social systems demand more spending. The takeaway is blunt without new markets, diversified supply chains, and technology-focused investment, Europe risks a slow slide into long-term stagnation.

That warning lands as the EU opened its first Trade and Investment Dialogue with the CPTPP bloc in Australia. Together, the EU and CPTPP represent more than a third of global trade, and the new cooperation focuses on exactly the pressure points flagged in the report: supply-chain resilience, digital trade, and diversification beyond vulnerable dependencies. With Germany’s export-heavy economy already facing rising costs and hesitant private investment, this isn’t just diplomacy. It’s a hedge against a future of middling growth, and possibly Europe’s best chance to stay competitive in a world where others are moving faster.

Read the full policy brief on Bertelsmann Stiftung’s website.

Germany is preparing new measures to increase deportations of rejected asylum seekers, including a controversial discussion about possible returns to Syria. The government argues that current deportation rates are too low and wants to streamline procedures by reducing legal barriers and expanding detention capacity. Supporters see this as a necessary response to rising migration and pressure from opposition parties, while critics warn that returning people to conflict zones like Syria could violate international law and human rights obligations. The debate has intensified as migration remains one of the most politically charged issues in Germany, shaping both national and EU-level policymaking.

This issue sits at the heart of Germany’s domestic and foreign policy crossroads. Domestically, it reflects growing public concern over migration management and the rise of right-wing populism, which is pushing mainstream parties to appear tougher on immigration. Internationally, it forces Germany to navigate legal and ethical boundaries under the Geneva Refugee Convention while balancing humanitarian principles with enforcement. The policy direction taken now will influence Germany’s broader stance within the EU on migration reform and its reputation as a rights-based democracy.

Read more in detail on DW’s website.

Germany’s foreign policy in 2025 has been shaped by crises and ambition alike. Ten months after outlining its plan, Berlin has sustained support for Ukraine, delivered humanitarian aid in Gaza and Sudan, and re-engaged diplomatically in Syria, while modernizing its visa system to support skilled workers and students. Yet success has been uneven. Germany’s influence on long-term peacebuilding remains constrained by entrenched conflicts, fragmented diplomacy, and domestic political debates. War fatigue, logistical hurdles, and the limits of leverage in fragile states test Berlin’s ability to project strategic leadership while maintaining moral and political commitments.

Despite these challenges, Germany continues to champion multilateralism through organizations such as NATO, the G7, the EU, and global climate initiatives. Its ability to translate crisis management into lasting influence will define its role on the global stage in the years ahead.

Read the full analysis on Diplomacy Berlin.

The IMF Executive Board has concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation with Mexico, noting that the country’s economy remains resilient despite global uncertainty and domestic fiscal tightening. Growth is projected at 1.0 percent in 2025, recovering to 1.5 percent in 2026, with inflation expected to converge toward Banxico’s 3 percent target by late 2026. The IMF praised Mexico’s prudent monetary policy and robust financial sector, while urging more ambitious, revenue-based fiscal consolidation and reforms to strengthen institutions, infrastructure, and the rule of law.

For Berlin’s diplomatic and business community, Mexico’s performance carries broader relevance. Against the backdrop of shifting global alliances and reconfigured supply chains, Mexico’s economic stability reinforces its position as a credible trade and investment partner an aspect not lost on the diplomatic community in Berlin, including the Mexican Embassy, which continues to promote stronger transatlantic and EU–Mexico economic ties.

Read the full IMF report on Mexico’s 2025 Article IV Consultation here.

On October 22, UN Secretary-General António Guterres cautioned that the rules-based global trading system is in danger of “derailment” as protectionism rises, tariffs spread, and trust in multilateral institutions erodes. He pointed to a surge in trade disputes, the growing weaponization of economic policy, and the widening gap between developed and developing economies as threats to global stability. Berlin’s stakes are immediate: its prosperity as the world’s third-largest exporter relies on open markets and predictable trade rules. But this is not just a German story the erosion of multilateral trade governance affects everyone, from consumers facing higher costs to businesses navigating fractured supply chains. Germany’s reliance on open markets illustrates a broader reality: as multilateral trust weakens, the ripple effects touch every trading nation.

Read the full story here on Reuters.

The OECD’s 2025 report evaluates rulemaking and regulatory practices across all EU Member States, assessing alignment with OECD standards for high-quality regulation. It focuses on three core tools: stakeholder engagement, ex ante impact assessment, and ex post evaluation, highlighting how countries apply them in line with EU law. The report identifies progress, challenges, and priorities for improvement, offering examples of best practices and actionable recommendations. It also extends coverage to Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Cyprus, and Malta, providing a comprehensive benchmark for strengthening regulatory quality across Europe.

Read the full report on the OECD website.

The article „European Market – European Rules“ by Prof. Dennis-Kenji Kipker argues that the EU’s Digital Markets Act (DMA) and Digital Services Act (DSA) embody European digital sovereignty, not anti-American sentiment. These laws promote fair competition, transparency, and accountability in digital markets by regulating powerful tech platforms, primarily U.S.-based firms. Kipker criticizes U.S. claims of “digital discrimination,” noting that compliance with European laws is the cost of accessing a market of 450 million consumers. He highlights the hypocrisy of U.S. complaints, given the CLOUD Act’s extraterritorial reach, and stresses that Europe’s aim is not isolation but strategic autonomy – ensuring open, interoperable ecosystems and protecting citizens’ digital rights through responsible, democratic regulation.

Read the full article on Heise Online.

In September, inflation across the eurozone rose to 2.2 %, the highest level in five months, pushed by stronger price increases in services and energy goods. Core inflation (which strips out volatile items like food and energy) held steady at 2.3 %, signaling that underlying price pressures remain entrenched. The rise strengthens the case for the European Central Bank to maintain its current interest rate stance rather than moving prematurely.

Germany is especially exposed: as a major exporter and a country with close ties to eurozone monetary policy, rising inflation affects its competitiveness, consumer prices, and the calculus for German fiscal and industrial policies. Berlin will be watching EU monetary moves and inflation data closely for cues on how to balance investment, wage growth, and export pressures.

Read the full story on Euronews.

After four consecutive years in deficit, the European Union recorded a €23 billion surplus in high-tech trade with non-EU partners in 2024, compared to a €15 billion deficit in 2023. According to Eurostat, exports of high-tech goods grew by 8.1% to €501 billion, while imports edged down slightly to €478 billion. Pharmaceuticals, electronics, and aerospace were the main growth drivers, with the United States and the United Kingdom acting as the largest external markets.

The shift highlights how Europe’s high-tech sector has regained competitiveness on the global stage despite headwinds from geopolitical tensions and supply chain vulnerabilities. For Germany, the largest high-tech manufacturing hub in the EU with nearly 9,000 firms and over 660,000 employees in the sector, the surplus underscores both opportunity and responsibility: Berlin’s ability to innovate, invest in R&D, and stabilize supply chains will shape how sustainable this recovery becomes.

Read more about the trade surplus on Eurostat.

The World Trade Organization’s 2025 World Trade Report finds that artificial intelligence (AI) could propel the value of global trade in goods and services by nearly 40% by 2040, provided policies are put in place to bridge the digital divide and support workforce skills. The report highlights that AI-driven cost reductions and productivity gains have the potential to add up to 37% to global trade volumes and boost global GDP by 12-13% under various scenarios.

However, realizing these gains requires proactive investments in digital infrastructure, education, and open trade regulations, especially for low- and middle-income economies. Without such measures, gaps in access and restrictive trade policies could worsen inequality and leave many countries behind amid the AI revolution.

To know more about the report’s findings and recommendations, read more on the World Trade Organization’s official site.

The ECB’s September 2025 staff macroeconomic projections indicate that the euro area economy is expected to grow moderately, with real GDP rising by 1.2% in 2025, 1.0% in 2026, and 1.3% in 2027. Growth is expected to be supported by rising wages, increased government spending on infrastructure and defense, and improved financing conditions, despite challenges from higher US tariffs and subdued foreign demand.
Moreover, inflation is projected to stabilize around the ECB’s medium-term target of 2%, with energy price volatility and climate-focused fiscal measures influencing inflation trends. The labour market remains resilient, while export prospects are dampened by competitive pressures and tariffs, leading to slower export growth but sustained import activity.
Read more on the ECB’s website.

In August 2025, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in Germany dropped sharply to 34.7 points, a decline of 18 points from the previous month, reflecting disappointment among financial market experts following the EU–US trade deal. The economic situation also deteriorated, with the situation indicator falling to minus 68.6 points. Key sectors affected include chemicals, pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering, metal, and automotive. The eurozone outlook is more positive at 25.1 points, but still 11 points lower than the previous month, with the situation indicator at minus 31.2 points, signaling broadly subdued sentiment. These figures highlight ongoing uncertainty and challenges for Germany and the eurozone, particularly in industrial sectors. Read the full report on the ZEW website.

After the EU-US summit on Russia’s war against Ukraine, Berlin is actively debating the nature and extent of Germany’s role in providing security guarantees for Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz welcomed the summit’s outcomes, emphasizing that any agreement must begin with a ceasefire, reflecting the broader European position, whereas the US has advocated moving directly to peace talks. Security operations under consideration range from enhanced training missions to proposals for a UN peacekeeping force of up to 40,000. The ongoing process underscores Merz’s assertive foreign policy, a shift welcomed by many within Germany’s ruling coalition. Read the full article on DW’s website.

The OECD’s International Trade Statistics for the first quarter of 2025 reveal notable global shifts: G20 merchandise trade rose, with exports up 2.0% and imports up 3.1%, driven by strong performance in the European Union and the United States. North American trade was particularly robust, as US exports grew by 3.5% and imports surged by 19.0% in anticipation of higher tariffs. Europe’s export growth was led by the UK (+4.7%) and the EU (+2.8%), with Germany’s exports up 0.8%. East Asia saw mixed outcomes, as China’s exports increased slightly (1.1%) but imports fell by 3.7%. Services trade results were varied: US exports posted mild growth (+0.4%), while Canada, France, and Germany experienced contractions. Read the full report as a pdf on OECD’s webiste.

After a brisk start, Latin America’s growth momentum faltered in the third quarter of 2025, as noted in KPMG’s latest outlook. Lower consumer demand, persistent inflation, and more restrictive financial conditions have been exacerbated by softer exports to China and commodity price swings. The slowdown reverberates well beyond the region. Sectors ranging from automotive to agriculture are watching regional trends closely, balancing exposure in Latin America against shifting economic prospects at home, as analysts predict this cooling may temper European growth ambitions linked to Latin America for the remainder of the year. You can know more about it on KPMG’s website.

The July 2025 Eurostat report highlights the euro area’s trade resilience amid global uncertainties. In May 2025, the euro area’s trade surplus rose to €16.2 billion, driven by strong performance in chemicals and steady gains in machinery and vehicles, alongside a reduced energy deficit. The EU overall had a €13.1 billion surplus, up from €8.9 billion the previous year, despite a decline in surpluses in machinery and vehicles. This reflects a complex trade environment where energy import challenges persist but are balanced by robust manufacturing exports. Policymakers should focus on enhancing competitiveness in key sectors and advancing energy diversification and efficiency to maintain economic stability and strengthen Europe’s global position. You can explore the detailed data and analysis on Eurostat.

The study “Solving Europe’s AI Talent Equation” (Interface & CEPS, 2025) offers a rigorous analysis of the European Artificial Intelligence (AI) labour market. It underscores the acute and persistent mismatches between demand and supply across skill tiers related to AI. Although the mid-level technical roles  (software and data analytics) are well-sourced, the foundational AI literacy remains critically under-provisioned. In some EU member states, up to 52% of entry-level positions require basic competence, whereas only 20% candidate possess the required standard. Similarly, the demand for advanced research and engineering expertise surpasses supply by a factor of two. If left unaddressed, Left unaddressed, these asymmetries threaten to undermine Europe’s strategic ambitions in AI innovation and technological sovereignty. Therefore, a comprehensive, multi-level interventions are essential. For a full breakdown and the comparative data, consult the complete Solving Europe’s AI Talent Equation report.

Recent Ipsos poll results show the populist, euroskeptic party Reform UK clearly leading British voter support with 34 percent. Reform UK has a 9-point lead over the Labour Party and a 19-point lead over the Conservatives. Labour is registering its lowest support since October 2019 at just 25 percent, while the Conservatives are at their lowest ever recorded by Ipsos with 15 percent. Reform UK enjoys particularly strong voter base loyalty, while traditional major parties are losing support to fringe groups. The collapse of the two-party system in the UK is an ongoing process, which can also be seen as relevant to Germany. In Germany, signs of the breakup of the traditional large parties have also appeared for some time. The results of the SPD and CDU/CSU in the last federal election made this very clear. The first weeks of the Merz government initially improved public perception, but recent polls show that sentiment is worsening again. The alliance of a weak Union and an even weaker SPD is on shaky ground. Doubts are already emerging whether the coalition can last a full legislative term, and the government has been in office for less than 100 days. Though the historic defense agreement between Germany and Great Britain is a reason for joy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to the island surely brought some worries. He might well be wondering whether the next German-British agreement will possibly be signed by Alice Weidel and Nigel Farage.

The 2025 Deloitte Human Capital Trends report, based on a survey of 14,000 business and HR leaders across 95 countries, reveals a striking disconnect: while 77 precent agree that integrating AI with human capabilities is essential for success, only 7 percent feel very ready to meet this challenge. Seventy-one percent expect AI to significantly redesign work within 3–5 years, yet just 16 percent say their organizations are actively preparing employees for this shift. Notably, those investing in both human sustainability and technology are 1.4 times more likely to achieve strong human and business outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to bridge the gap between AI ambition and workforce preparedness. For deeper insights and the complete set of trends, explore the full Deloitte 2025 Global Human Capital Trends report.

On Friday, former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened the EU with tariffs of up to 50% — more than double the original 20%. “Our talks with them (the EU) are going nowhere!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. European leaders quickly responded: EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič emphasized that the EU remains committed to a mutually beneficial trade agreement based on “respect, not threats,” but warned that Europe is also prepared “to defend our interests.” France’s Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin echoed the call for “de-escalation” while affirming Europe’s readiness to “respond.”

Across Europe, concern is mounting over the potential economic fallout from Trump’s approach to global trade. According to a recent Ipsos survey conducted in Croatia, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden:

• 78% of respondents believe Trump’s policies will have a negative impact on the global economy.

• 74% expect negative effects for Europe.

• 62% foresee economic harm even to the United States itself.

Swedes were the most concerned, with 57% predicting a very negative impact. Gender and generational differences also emerged: women (78%) and Gen Z (75%) respondents expressed more pessimism than men (70%) and Baby Boomers (72%). In terms of how Europe should respond to potential U.S. tariffs:

• 23% support strengthening internal EU trade by reducing internal barriers.

• 20% favor retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.

• Croatians (25%) and the French (29%) were the most supportive of these respective approaches.

• More women (26%) and Gen Z respondents (25%) support reducing intra-EU trade barriers than men (20%) and Baby Boomers (20%).

A clear majority (63%) believe that EU institutions — not national governments — are best positioned to respond to U.S. trade threats. This sentiment is strongest in the Netherlands (76%) and weakest in Croatia (46%). Once again, women (64%) and Gen Z (64%) were slightly more supportive of the EU’s leading role than men (61%) and Baby Boomers (62%).

The economic risks of higher tariffs are widely recognized:

• 94% expect rising consumer prices (98% in Sweden).

• 88% fear job losses (93% in Spain).

• 85% anticipate lower wages (91% in Spain).

• 92% foresee an economic slowdown (97% in Spain).

In summary, the Ipsos data reveals widespread European anxiety about Trump’s trade policies and strong support for a united EU response. To ensure economic resilience and stability, the EU must prioritize deeper internal integration and present a coordinated front in dealing with future U.S. trade tensions.

About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.

Poland is a key European partner. For newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the visit to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw — immediately following his trip to Paris — symbolized a “fresh start” in bilateral relations. Now, Poland is heading into a pivotal presidential election this weekend, one that could significantly shape the country’s future political landscape and its relations with international partners.

The current president, Andrzej Duda, a socially conservative figure, has faced widespread criticism — particularly over judicial reforms that have greatly undermined the independence of Poland’s judiciary and brought the country into conflict with the European Union.

Currently leading in the polls is the liberal Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski of the Civic Platform party. He represents the progressive electorate and champions LGBTQ rights, the legalization of same-sex partnerships, and liberalized abortion laws. His closest challenger is the independent candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing populist Law and Justice Party (PiS). Nawrocki promotes a national-conservative social agenda.

This election carries major implications for Germany as well. A victory for Trzaskowski could signal a thaw in the often tense German-Polish relations under the PiS-led government. Conversely, a Nawrocki win could further strain diplomatic ties.

According to an April Ipsos survey, the top three concerns among Polish citizens were:

1. The state of the healthcare system – 43%

2. Risk of military conflict between nations – 39%

3. Inflation – 27%

Overall, 59% of Poles believed the country was headed in the wrong direction, while 41% felt it was on the right track. In comparison, the sentiment in Germany during the same period was even more pessimistic: 75% believed the country was on the wrong path, versus 25% who saw it positively.

About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.

Newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is in Paris in search of European momentum. But on the western side of the Rhine, political dynamics are also stalling. Much like in Germany, French citizens are increasingly concerned about rising crime and violence (37%). Inflation (31%) and uncontrolled immigration (26%) are also among the top issues on the public agenda in France.

There are other striking parallels between France and Germany. At the end of March, Marine Le Pen — parliamentary leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (formerly Front National) — was convicted for misusing European Union funds. She has been barred from holding political office or standing in any election for the next five years. This decision could prevent her from running in the 2027 presidential elections — a race in which she was previously considered a strong contender to succeed President Emmanuel Macron.

Meanwhile, in Germany, the possibility of legally sidelining political opponents is also under debate. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV) recently classified the AfD as a confirmed far-right extremist party, reigniting discussions around a potential party ban. Merz would do well to examine how France is navigating similar legal and political tensions. Following her conviction, Le Pen was quick to portray herself as the innocent target of politically motivated justice — a narrative that mirrors the AfD’s reaction to the BfV’s ruling.

Yet banning right-wing populist parties — even when legally justified — is unlikely to turn their supporters into champions of democracy. Instead, we might consider the point raised by SPD politician Katarina Barley on the talk show Markus Lanz, where she described the rise of populism as part of a broader international socio-political trend.

About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.

The fear among Germans of a military conflict has increased by 11 percentage points since February 2025. This may partly be due to the erratic behavior of our transatlantic partners, who in recent weeks and months have done much to unsettle NATO allies (annexation of Canada, invasion of Greenland and Panama) and are increasingly abandoning the familiar diplomatic stage. Germany finds itself in a situation where, in the words of JD Vance, we can no longer be “freeloaders” relying on American security guarantees. Instead of American “bailouts,” we now have to put on our own boots, fix bayonets, and defend our interests ourselves.

Anyone who invested in highly praised ETFs like the MSCI World or S&P 500 is currently feeling the pain. The American stock market has slipped into the red in recent weeks. Surprisingly, this seems to bother incumbent President Donald Trump very little—even though one of his key (and controversial) advisors, Elon Musk, has suffered losses amounting to several billion dollars. While the falling Tesla stock price has various causes, economists have long warned that the MAGA doctrine could lead to negative economic consequences—higher inflation and even a recession.

An Ipsos survey now shows that Americans are worried about the impact of tariffs on prices. Let’s remember: rising prices were one of the main reasons voters made their choice in the US. Only 31 percent of Americans support Trump’s price stability policy. On other issues such as the economy, foreign policy, and corruption, satisfaction with the president also remains below 40 percent. The government’s slimming-down efforts are controversial as well, with 57 percent opposing mass layoffs of civil servants. The only area where Trump still enjoys strong support (49 percent) is immigration policy.

Despite these low approval ratings, Trump’s overall approval stands at 44 percent—still higher than that of his predecessor, Joe Biden. A small consolation for Elon Musk: the US president has shown solidarity and reportedly plans to buy a Tesla. Whether this is good marketing remains to be seen.

Beyond concerns about funding—whether justified or not—fewer Germans support additional arms shipments to Ukraine. According to a recent Ipsos survey, nearly half of Germans (48%) believe that Germany should stop sending more weapons to Ukraine, while only 38% favor continuing or increasing arms exports.

Looking at the political landscape reveals a diverse picture. Supporters of the AfD and BSW are most opposed, with 88% (AfD) and 90% (BSW) against further deliveries. Meanwhile, the majority of Green (74%) and SPD (64%) supporters favor continued arms shipments. Notably, SPD support has declined slightly in recent months—from 69% in September 2024 to 64% today. Among CDU/CSU supporters, opinion is nearly split, with 49% in favor and 40% opposed, showing little change since September 2024. Support for arms deliveries among FDP (63%, up 10 points) and Left party supporters (44%, up 8 points) has increased noticeably since the last survey.

For full details, you can read the official Ipsos report here: Jede:r zweite Deutsche gegen weitere Waffenlieferungen an die Ukraine | Ipsos. To learn more about Ipsos and their research, visit their main website: Ipsos Germany.

About the author: Robert Grimm, PhD, leads political and social research at Ipsos Germany.

In the “Predictions 2025” survey by Ipsos, people from 33 countries were asked about their attitudes and expectations on various topics such as the economy, technology, environment, and society. Unsurprisingly, a significant majority (72%) of Germans rated 2024 negatively. This makes people in Germany significantly more pessimistic than the average across all surveyed countries (65%). However, Germany is not alone in this pessimism within Europe. In France, 79 percent of respondents said the year had gone rather badly. In the UK, 76 percent also viewed the past 12 months negatively. While this may be understandable for France—where fantastic Olympic Games were accompanied by political chaos (two governments since July)—one might expect that the British would feel more clarity and satisfaction after Labour’s landslide victory regarding their country’s social and political direction.

Yet, this is not the case. Ipsos’ survey results, unfortunately, show that new elections do not necessarily bring political calm to the population, nor do satisfaction ratings for a new government automatically rise—and stay high—overnight. After Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier dissolved the Bundestag and set the course for new elections, I hope that a stable (two-party) coalition government is quickly formed after the February 2025 elections, one that tackles the country’s challenges purposefully. However, new elections alone are not the solution. The new government will have to make difficult decisions that will not please everyone.

These insights have been shared by Robert Grimm, who holds a PhD in sociology and leads political and social research at the market, opinion, and social research institute Ipsos Germany.