Despite the onset of significant U.S. tariff hikes in 2025, the European Union’s overall trade surplus remained remarkably stable through the end of the year. While exports to the United States became increasingly volatile—dropping by approximately 10% in November 2025 compared to the previous year—European exporters successfully mitigated these losses by diversifying into alternative markets. Increased trade volumes with the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland, and Turkey provided a critical buffer, allowing EU goods export volumes to reach record highs in the third quarter of 2025, growing 3.6% in real terms.
For the diplomatic community in Berlin, this shift underscores a pivot from transatlantic reliance toward strategic market diversification. While the U.S. trade deficit narrowed toward the end of 2025, analysts suggest this was driven more by a spike in non-monetary gold exports and pharmaceutical import declines rather than a sustained reshoring of manufacturing. As global supply chains reorganize to circumvent new trade barriers, the EU’s ability to maintain its trade balance highlights a „fragmenting but not deglobalizing“ international order where resilience is found through broader geographical engagement.
Read the full study on Bruegel for detailed data on trade-reporting discrepancies and product-specific tariff impacts.