Chatham House analysis questions whether the US under President Trump will transform its 2026 G20 presidency – culminating at his Doral golf club – into a transactional „dealmaking club“ rather than a multilateral consensus machine. After boycotting South Africa’s summit and criticising themes like equality and sustainability, Washington now outlines a narrower agenda: deregulation, growth, energy security, critical minerals, and selective debt relief that avoids letting „recalcitrant creditors“ like China off the hook.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s priorities shift from broad equity pledges to more concrete, bilateral-style pacts. These include mineral-processing deals linking industrial economies to African value chains, and energy investments mixing nuclear, LNG, and US Export-Import Bank financing. This approach could produce useful templates for trade and economic security at a time of fiscal fragility and tech rivalry. But it also risks sidelining Global South concerns — and adding volatility if Fed tightening or US domestic politics pull attention away.
For EU diplomats in Berlin, the stakes are immediate: a US-led G20 covering 85% of global GDP sets templates for critical minerals diversification (vital for Germany’s industry) and debt transparency that could pressure EU positions on China and emerging markets. Success hinges on whether Trump leverages the forum for targeted wins – or lets personalities overshadow progress on imbalances that hit European exports and supply chains hardest. For Berlin, the G20 presidency will shape how the US plans to use economic security tools that directly affect EU supply chains.
Know more on Chatham House’s website