In Bosnia’s Volatile Transition: Waiting for a More Decisive Germany, analyst Nikola Xaviereff argues that Bosnia is entering a precarious political phase following the decline of Milorad Dodik’s separatist push. DGAP suggests that with U.S. attention receding and EU bandwidth stretched, Germany should take a lead role in redesigning Bosnia’s international supervision, especially ahead of its upcoming elections. The risks are high: renewed ethnic tensions, institutional paralysis, and regression on EU integration. For Germany, this isn’t just Balkan policy, it’s a test of its capacity to lead Europe’s stability agenda, safeguard EU enlargement credibility, and prevent geopolitical vacuums just beyond its borders.
Read the full memo on DGAP’s site.