Recent Ipsos poll results show the populist, euroskeptic party Reform UK clearly leading British voter support with 34 percent. Reform UK has a 9-point lead over the Labour Party and a 19-point lead over the Conservatives. Labour is registering its lowest support since October 2019 at just 25 percent, while the Conservatives are at their lowest ever recorded by Ipsos with 15 percent. Reform UK enjoys particularly strong voter base loyalty, while traditional major parties are losing support to fringe groups. The collapse of the two-party system in the UK is an ongoing process, which can also be seen as relevant to Germany.
In Germany, signs of the breakup of the traditional large parties have also appeared for some time. The results of the SPD and CDU/CSU in the last federal election made this very clear. The first weeks of the Merz government initially improved public perception, but recent polls show that sentiment is worsening again. The alliance of a weak Union and an even weaker SPD is on shaky ground. Doubts are already emerging whether the coalition can last a full legislative term, and the government has been in office for less than 100 days.
Though the historic defense agreement between Germany and Great Britain is a reason for joy, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to the island surely brought some worries. He might well be wondering whether the next German-British agreement will possibly be signed by Alice Weidel and Nigel Farage.