Poland is a key European partner. For newly appointed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, the visit to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in Warsaw — immediately following his trip to Paris — symbolized a “fresh start” in bilateral relations. Now, Poland is heading into a pivotal presidential election this weekend, one that could significantly shape the country’s future political landscape and its relations with international partners.
The current president, Andrzej Duda, a socially conservative figure, has faced widespread criticism — particularly over judicial reforms that have greatly undermined the independence of Poland’s judiciary and brought the country into conflict with the European Union.
Currently leading in the polls is the liberal Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski of the Civic Platform party. He represents the progressive electorate and champions LGBTQ rights, the legalization of same-sex partnerships, and liberalized abortion laws. His closest challenger is the independent candidate Karol Nawrocki, backed by the right-wing populist Law and Justice Party (PiS). Nawrocki promotes a national-conservative social agenda.
This election carries major implications for Germany as well. A victory for Trzaskowski could signal a thaw in the often tense German-Polish relations under the PiS-led government. Conversely, a Nawrocki win could further strain diplomatic ties.
According to an April Ipsos survey, the top three concerns among Polish citizens were:
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The state of the healthcare system – 43%
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Risk of military conflict between nations – 39%
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Inflation – 27%
Overall, 59% of Poles believed the country was headed in the wrong direction, while 41% felt it was on the right track. In comparison, the sentiment in Germany during the same period was even more pessimistic: 75% believed the country was on the wrong path, versus 25% who saw it positively.
About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.