The latest Bertelsmann Stiftung policy brief paints a sober outlook for Europe: moderate growth at best through 2025, driven by weak investment, sluggish productivity and the lingering aftershocks of disrupted supply chains. High financing costs continue to weigh on companies that want to modernize, and governments face limited fiscal room as aging infrastructure and social systems demand more spending. The takeaway is blunt without new markets, diversified supply chains, and technology-focused investment, Europe risks a slow slide into long-term stagnation.
That warning lands as the EU opened its first Trade and Investment Dialogue with the CPTPP bloc in Australia. Together, the EU and CPTPP represent more than a third of global trade, and the new cooperation focuses on exactly the pressure points flagged in the report: supply-chain resilience, digital trade, and diversification beyond vulnerable dependencies. With Germany’s export-heavy economy already facing rising costs and hesitant private investment, this isn’t just diplomacy. It’s a hedge against a future of middling growth, and possibly Europe’s best chance to stay competitive in a world where others are moving faster.
Read the full policy brief on Bertelsmann Stiftung’s website.