On Friday, former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened the EU with tariffs of up to 50% — more than double the original 20%. “Our talks with them (the EU) are going nowhere!” Trump wrote on Truth Social. European leaders quickly responded: EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič emphasized that the EU remains committed to a mutually beneficial trade agreement based on “respect, not threats,” but warned that Europe is also prepared “to defend our interests.” France’s Trade Minister Laurent Saint-Martin echoed the call for “de-escalation” while affirming Europe’s readiness to “respond.”
Across Europe, concern is mounting over the potential economic fallout from Trump’s approach to global trade. According to a recent Ipsos survey conducted in Croatia, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, and Sweden:
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78% of respondents believe Trump’s policies will have a negative impact on the global economy.
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74% expect negative effects for Europe.
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62% foresee economic harm even to the United States itself.
Swedes were the most concerned, with 57% predicting a very negative impact. Gender and generational differences also emerged: women (78%) and Gen Z (75%) respondents expressed more pessimism than men (70%) and Baby Boomers (72%). In terms of how Europe should respond to potential U.S. tariffs:
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23% support strengthening internal EU trade by reducing internal barriers.
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20% favor retaliatory tariffs against the U.S.
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Croatians (25%) and the French (29%) were the most supportive of these respective approaches.
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More women (26%) and Gen Z respondents (25%) support reducing intra-EU trade barriers than men (20%) and Baby Boomers (20%).
A clear majority (63%) believe that EU institutions — not national governments — are best positioned to respond to U.S. trade threats. This sentiment is strongest in the Netherlands (76%) and weakest in Croatia (46%). Once again, women (64%) and Gen Z (64%) were slightly more supportive of the EU’s leading role than men (61%) and Baby Boomers (62%).
The economic risks of higher tariffs are widely recognized:
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94% expect rising consumer prices (98% in Sweden).
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88% fear job losses (93% in Spain).
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85% anticipate lower wages (91% in Spain).
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92% foresee an economic slowdown (97% in Spain).
In summary, the Ipsos data reveals widespread European anxiety about Trump’s trade policies and strong support for a united EU response. To ensure economic resilience and stability, the EU must prioritize deeper internal integration and present a coordinated front in dealing with future U.S. trade tensions.
About the author: Dr. Robert Grimm is a sociologist and Head of Political and Social Research at Ipsos Germany.