In the latest podcast of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), Mark Leonard was joined by Jana Kobzova, co‑director of ECFR’s European Security Programme, and Jim O’Brien, former US assistant secretary of state for Europe, to dissect the recently leaked 28‑point plan proposed by the US as a framework for ending the war in Ukraine. The discussion highlights the far-reaching implications of the plan, not only for Kyiv but for European security and transatlantic relations. According to the hosts, the proposals demand major territorial concessions from Ukraine, including recognition of Russian control over regions such as Crimea, Luhansk, and Donetsk, and impose restrictions on Ukraine’s military capabilities alongside a constitutional ban on future NATO membership. Kyiv has rejected the plan as a capitulation, while European governments are pressing for a meaningful seat at the negotiating table. This episode fits well within our editorial lens, because it examines the political and institutional consequences of a potential settlement proposal — not just the battlefield dimension of the war. Yet Europe’s influence remains uneven. Its leverage comes less from military weight and more from its long-term role in reconstruction funding, security guarantees, and the political sustainability of any future settlement. European leaders argue that without their involvement, a US-brokered proposal risks creating obligations they will ultimately be responsible for upholding.
The panel noted that the plan appears to hint at a broader shift in US strategy, one that may reward Russian aggression and shift the burden of European security onto the continent itself. The discussion explored the tension between short-term diplomatic expediency and the long-term consequences for Ukraine’s sovereignty, European cohesion, and the credibility of Western security guarantees. If the parts of the plan were implemented, the outcome could destabilize the balance of power in Europe and leave open the possibility that Ukraine would be coerced into a settlement on Russia’s terms rather than a negotiated peace based on its territorial integrity. The podcast underscores the complexity of European security today: Europe must navigate competing pressures from the US, Russia, and the realities on the ground in Ukraine, all while maintaining its own strategic autonomy. The speakers also stressed that any framework imposed without meaningful European input could reshape the continent’s security architecture for decades — affecting NATO’s credibility, EU unity, and the balance of power between Washington and European capitals.
Read the full discussion and listen to the full podcast on the ECFR website.