In this Radio Davos episode, John Letzing discusses the January 2026 Chief Economists’ Outlook with Christian Keller, Head of Economics Research at Barclays. The outlook draws on a global survey of senior economists and describes an economy marked by uncertainty but surprising resilience. Keller explains that despite tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and trade fragmentation, growth has held up better than expected. This is largely because many tariffs were delayed or softened, companies adjusted quickly by stockpiling goods, and markets calmed once the worst scenarios did not materialize.
A central theme of the conversation is artificial intelligence. Keller argues that the AI investment boom has played a decisive role in supporting economic performance, especially in the United States. Massive spending on data centres, energy infrastructure, and AI technologies has boosted investment, lifted stock markets, and increased household wealth, which in turn supported consumer spending. While economists acknowledge the risk of overvaluation, Keller suggests that even if current enthusiasm proves excessive, it may still leave behind valuable infrastructure that raises long-term productivity.
The episode also looks ahead to the main risks for 2026. Keller warns that the economic impact of tariffs may yet emerge as inventories run down and higher costs reach consumers. He discusses concerns about rising inequality from AI-driven job disruption, persistent cost-of-living pressures, growing public debt, and the political temptation to weaken central bank independence. Overall, the discussion offers a clear and grounded explanation of why the global economy appears stable for now, but remains vulnerable to delayed shocks and policy missteps.
Listen to the full episode on: Radio Davos, World Economic Forum Podcasts