Marking the European Council on Foreign Relations’ 18th anniversary, this podcast contrasts the „peak optimism“ of 2007 – when democracy seemed ascendant—with today’s „age of disorder.“ Panelists Carl Bildt, Lykke Friis, and Norbert Röttgen dissect a Europe forced to mature rapidly. Röttgen outlines a fundamental paradigm shift in Berlin, citing imminent conscription legislation and a defense budget projected to rise to €150 billion – figures unimaginable at ECFR’s founding. However, the discussion reveals a darker „Second Zeitenwende“: a sense of betrayal by the United States. The panel details a shocking diplomatic maneuver where Washington reportedly intervened with Belgium to block Europe’s financing of Ukraine via frozen Russian assets, demanding a US-managed fund with guaranteed revenues. This underscores a brutal reality where Europe is navigating not just Russian aggression, but a transactional and potentially hostile transatlantic partner.
Critically, the conversation exposes the limits of Germany’s new assertiveness. While Röttgen identifies a Germany-Poland axis as the new center of continental defense, he warns that Berlin „cannot go it alone“ despite a domestic consensus on rearmament. The panelists candidly admit to a collective failure in predicting the full scale of Russian revisionism, acknowledging that Europe’s „ambivalent optimism“ often clouded strategic foresight. Looking toward 2043, the discussion suggests that the EU must abandon the ideal of uniform integration in favor of a „concentric Europe,“ a necessary pragmatic shift to preserve democratic values in a fragmented global order.
To listen to the full episode, visit the ECFR website.