In the latest German Marshall Fund briefing, Noah Barkin examines how the power balance between Washington and Beijing is shifting and what that means for Europe. Despite expectations that Donald Trump’s second term would harden U.S. policy toward China, his administration’s inconsistent approach has instead strengthened Beijing’s hand. China’s recent deal with the U.S. over rare earth exports has left Europe exposed, particularly in critical industries like automotive and defense. The crisis surrounding Dutch chipmaker Nexperia illustrates how Europe’s dependency on Chinese technology and materials can quickly become a strategic vulnerability.
For Germany, the warning signs are flashing. Its car sector and military modernization plans depend heavily on access to rare earths and semiconductor components now caught in geopolitical crossfire. Yet Berlin’s slow response — delayed strategies, bureaucratic confusion, and a lack of clear direction from its new National Security Council suggests Europe’s largest economy is still struggling to define a coherent China policy. As Barkin notes, Germany “is staring at the train as it hits us.”
Read the full analysis on the German Marshall Fund website.