For years, the European continent relied on Russian pipeline gas, which accounted for nearly 40% of its total gas consumption in 2021. However, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 compelled Europe to look for alternative energy sources immediately, which led to rapid diversification towards American liquefied natural gas (LNG). By 2024, Russian pipeline gas deliveries declined to just 11%. According to Eurostat, in the first half (H1) of 2025, 55% of EU LNG and natural gas imports were from the United States, while 17% were still from Russia.

From Russian Pipelines to American LNG: A New Dependence?

The transformation from Russian pipeline gas to American LNG was underpinned by high-level political commitments. In March 2022, the U.S. and the EU issued a joint statement, in which both parties agreed to „reduce Europe’s dependency on Russian energy“ and the U.S. committed to providing „additional LNG volumes for the EU market of at least 15 bcm in 2022 with expected increases going forward“. Its goal was to assist Europe in achieving energy security amid the crisis and support the EU’s REPowerEU goals to end dependence on Russian fossil fuels by 2027. Similarly, the European Commission also pledged to expedite regulatory processes for LNG import infrastructure. To that end, it established an EU Energy Platform to coordinate demand and facilitate long-term contracting mechanisms.

At first glance, this shift appeared to be a pragmatic necessity, i.e., decoupling from an aggressive authoritarian regime while maintaining energy flows. However, it has become increasingly clear that Europe has just replaced one external dependency with another, which under Trump’s leadership is even more unreliable. American LNG now accounts for more than 60% of Europe’s gas imports, posing new risks related to transatlantic shipping lanes, US export regulations, and market volatility. In 2025, the International Energy Agency (IEA) also warned that „excessive reliance on a small number of suppliers“ poses distinctive geopolitical risks.

Kerstin Andreae, Chairwoman of the German Association of Energy and Water Industries (BDEW), told Diplomacy Berlin, „If Russian gas volumes are replaced by US LNG, this would amount to around 40 bcm annually—roughly €12–14 billion per year at current prices. Even if the ratio between the raw materials in energy imports is unclear and the total of €750 billion were to be interpreted as contracted energy volumes, this would result in approximately €180 billion for natural gas over 15 years“.

These figures raise serious questions about the sustainability and credibility of the proposed agreement, as they do not align with Europe’s actual gas demand or historical import levels. On one hand, the deal appears largely symbolic, more about geopolitics than energy logistics. On the other hand, it also signals an overcommitment to energy volumes that exceed Europe’s energy requirements or infrastructure capacity, carrying substantial financial and strategic risks. Either way, Andreae’s caution highlights a more serious problem: the agreement runs the risk of tying Europe into long-term agreements that could go against its own energy sovereignty and decarbonisation objectives.