The Latest Escalation: Sequence and Dynamics

On October 9, 2025, Pakistan reportedly conducted airstrikes in Kabul, Khost, Jalalabad, and Paktika in Afghanistan, targeting Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, who are allegedly being harbored by the Afghan Taliban government. The principal target, TTP leader Noor Wali Mehsud, survived, with a recorded message refuting the strike’s impact. However, this has yet to be confirmed by independent sources. In retaliation, the Taliban orchestrated a large-scale assault on Pakistani border posts on the night of October 11, claiming to have killed 58 Pakistani soldiers, injured 30, and briefly captured 25 Pakistani positions.

Pakistani military denies the bombers, reporting 23 dead and asserting that over 200 Taliban and affiliated fighters were “neutralised”; ISPR confirmed the capture and destruction of 21 Afghan positions, and asserted “extensive infrastructural damage” to Taliban support networks. Although casualties remain unverified, both sides acknowledge losses. Tensions spiked with threats of renewed hostilities, a collapse of direct diplomacy, and Pakistan’s defense ministry labeling bilateral ties “suspended” and the border “hostile” and unpredictable.

Economic Fallout: Border Closures and Humanitarian Impact

The immediate economic fallout is severe. Since October 12, both Torkham and Chaman—the main trade crossings—have been closed. Over 1,500 Afghan nationals were allowed to cross on foot, but thousands of trucks remain stuck, threatening cross-border commerce and the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands. Afghan business leaders warn the country “cannot afford a prolonged closure,” with perishable goods already lost on both sides. The situation worsens into a humanitarian crisis. Refugees gather at the border, and prolonged closures risk deepening food insecurity and internal displacement. Smuggling and black-market activity are on the rise, contributing to regional instability.
Structural roots: colonial and political grievances

The escalation stems from the long-standing dispute over the Durand Line. This 2,640-kilometer border, imposed by the British, has never been accepted by Afghanistan. Pakistan cites treaties and international recognition; the Taliban, like all Afghan governments since 1947, rejects any division of Pashtun lands and disruption of tribal networks. This ambiguity fuels non-state militancy and allows both sides to blame each other for harboring cross-border militants, creating a cycle of deniability and tension.